Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 amid intensified military actions, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's Ust-Luga port today and Russian advances in its spring 2026 offensive launched March 24. US-brokered trilateral talks paused mid-March due to the Iran conflict, with Zelenskyy's March 30 Easter truce proposal echoing prior rejections by Moscow, which demands territorial concessions unmet by Kyiv's insistence on full restoration. No direct bilateral negotiations are scheduled, and ongoing escalations—coupled with Russia's stated lack of deadlines—solidify the 97.3% "No" pricing. Realistic shifts would require sudden diplomatic breakthroughs or major battlefield reversals, though global distractions reduce near-term prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1,155,792 Vol.
$1,155,792 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$1,155,792 Vol.
$1,155,792 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 amid intensified military actions, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's Ust-Luga port today and Russian advances in its spring 2026 offensive launched March 24. US-brokered trilateral talks paused mid-March due to the Iran conflict, with Zelenskyy's March 30 Easter truce proposal echoing prior rejections by Moscow, which demands territorial concessions unmet by Kyiv's insistence on full restoration. No direct bilateral negotiations are scheduled, and ongoing escalations—coupled with Russia's stated lack of deadlines—solidify the 97.3% "No" pricing. Realistic shifts would require sudden diplomatic breakthroughs or major battlefield reversals, though global distractions reduce near-term prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,155,792End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 amid intensified military actions, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's Ust-Luga port today and Russian advances in its spring 2026 offensive launched March 24. US-brokered trilateral talks paused mid-March due to the Iran conflict, with Zelenskyy's March 30 Easter truce proposal echoing prior rejections by Moscow, which demands territorial concessions unmet by Kyiv's insistence on full restoration. No direct bilateral negotiations are scheduled, and ongoing escalations—coupled with Russia's stated lack of deadlines—solidify the 97.3% "No" pricing. Realistic shifts would require sudden diplomatic breakthroughs or major battlefield reversals, though global distractions reduce near-term prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$1,155,792End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 amid intensified military actions, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's Ust-Luga port today and Russian advances in its spring 2026 offensive launched March 24. US-brokered trilateral talks paused mid-March due to the Iran conflict, with Zelenskyy's March 30 Easter truce proposal echoing prior rejections by Moscow, which demands territorial concessions unmet by Kyiv's insistence on full restoration. No direct bilateral negotiations are scheduled, and ongoing escalations—coupled with Russia's stated lack of deadlines—solidify the 97.3% "No" pricing. Realistic shifts would require sudden diplomatic breakthroughs or major battlefield reversals, though global distractions reduce near-term prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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