Recent polls in battleground states like North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper leads RNC chair Michael Whatley by 8–18 points per Elon University and other surveys released in late March and early April, have boosted trader bets on Democratic flips of open Republican seats such as Tillis's. With Republicans defending 22 seats from their current 53–47 majority—including vulnerable incumbents Susan Collins in Maine and Dan Sullivan in Alaska, plus a contentious Texas GOP runoff pitting Ken Paxton against John Cornyn—the market reflects midterm headwinds against President Trump's party, historical net losses for the incumbent party, and uncertainty from retirements in Iowa, Montana, and Kentucky. Primaries kicking off this month in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, alongside national economic trends, could widen leads or solidify paths to a slim GOP hold at 49–51 seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$2,052,551 Vol.
$2,052,551 Vol.
≤47
27%
48
13%
49
19%
50
15%
51
14%
52
6%
53
5%
54
3%
55
2%
56
2%
57+
2%
$2,052,551 Vol.
$2,052,551 Vol.
≤47
$27,955 Vol.
27%
48
$15,364 Vol.
13%
49
$11,076 Vol.
19%
50
$60,015 Vol.
15%
51
$156,220 Vol.
14%
52
$503,986 Vol.
6%
53
$11,629 Vol.
5%
54
$706,530 Vol.
3%
55
$391,423 Vol.
2%
56
$138,915 Vol.
2%
57+
$29,439 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polls in battleground states like North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper leads RNC chair Michael Whatley by 8–18 points per Elon University and other surveys released in late March and early April, have boosted trader bets on Democratic flips of open Republican seats such as Tillis's. With Republicans defending 22 seats from their current 53–47 majority—including vulnerable incumbents Susan Collins in Maine and Dan Sullivan in Alaska, plus a contentious Texas GOP runoff pitting Ken Paxton against John Cornyn—the market reflects midterm headwinds against President Trump's party, historical net losses for the incumbent party, and uncertainty from retirements in Iowa, Montana, and Kentucky. Primaries kicking off this month in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, alongside national economic trends, could widen leads or solidify paths to a slim GOP hold at 49–51 seats.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,052,551Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polls in battleground states like North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper leads RNC chair Michael Whatley by 8–18 points per Elon University and other surveys released in late March and early April, have boosted trader bets on Democratic flips of open Republican seats such as Tillis's. With Republicans defending 22 seats from their current 53–47 majority—including vulnerable incumbents Susan Collins in Maine and Dan Sullivan in Alaska, plus a contentious Texas GOP runoff pitting Ken Paxton against John Cornyn—the market reflects midterm headwinds against President Trump's party, historical net losses for the incumbent party, and uncertainty from retirements in Iowa, Montana, and Kentucky. Primaries kicking off this month in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, alongside national economic trends, could widen leads or solidify paths to a slim GOP hold at 49–51 seats.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,052,551Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls in battleground states like North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper leads RNC chair Michael Whatley by 8–18 points per Elon University and other surveys released in late March and early April, have boosted trader bets on Democratic flips of open Republican seats such as Tillis's. With Republicans defending 22 seats from their current 53–47 majority—including vulnerable incumbents Susan Collins in Maine and Dan Sullivan in Alaska, plus a contentious Texas GOP runoff pitting Ken Paxton against John Cornyn—the market reflects midterm headwinds against President Trump's party, historical net losses for the incumbent party, and uncertainty from retirements in Iowa, Montana, and Kentucky. Primaries kicking off this month in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, alongside national economic trends, could widen leads or solidify paths to a slim GOP hold at 49–51 seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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