Trader consensus on the 2028 presidential election favors JD Vance at 21.1% implied probability, driven by his role as Donald Trump's vice presidential nominee and perceived status as GOP heir apparent if Republicans prevail in 2024, closely trailed by Gavin Newsom at 17.5% amid Democratic searches for post-Harris leadership. The field remains tightly bunched due to the unresolved 2024 contest, absence of primaries, and long three-year horizon fostering speculation across over two dozen candidates from governors to celebrities. Separation could emerge from the November 2024 results, 2026 midterm outcomes, early endorsements, or candidate entry announcements, as traders weigh party succession dynamics and national polling shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPresidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance 21.1%
Gavin Newsom 17.4%
Marco Rubio 11.5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$425,291,351 Vol.
$425,291,351 Vol.

JD Vance
21%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Josh Shapiro
3%

Donald Trump
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

James Talarico
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
JD Vance 21.1%
Gavin Newsom 17.4%
Marco Rubio 11.5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$425,291,351 Vol.
$425,291,351 Vol.

JD Vance
21%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Josh Shapiro
3%

Donald Trump
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

James Talarico
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on the 2028 presidential election favors JD Vance at 21.1% implied probability, driven by his role as Donald Trump's vice presidential nominee and perceived status as GOP heir apparent if Republicans prevail in 2024, closely trailed by Gavin Newsom at 17.5% amid Democratic searches for post-Harris leadership. The field remains tightly bunched due to the unresolved 2024 contest, absence of primaries, and long three-year horizon fostering speculation across over two dozen candidates from governors to celebrities. Separation could emerge from the November 2024 results, 2026 midterm outcomes, early endorsements, or candidate entry announcements, as traders weigh party succession dynamics and national polling shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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