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Tech·Llm

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Market icon
Tech·Llm

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

23% chance
Polymarket

$47,312 Vol.

23% chance
Polymarket

$47,312 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) achievement before 2027, driven primarily by the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark released March 25, 2026, where frontier models like GPT-5.4 scored just 0.26%—far below human performance at 100%—exposing persistent gaps in abstract reasoning and generalization despite scaling advances. OpenAI leaders, including President Greg Brockman stating 70-80% progress toward AGI in recent interviews, have fueled optimism via team rebrands like "AGI Deployment," yet no formal board determination or announcement has materialized, adhering to strict internal criteria. With nine months remaining, upcoming model releases and compute-intensive scaling efforts represent key catalysts, though benchmark shortfalls and definitional debates sustain skepticism among capital-backed traders.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$47,312
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) achievement before 2027, driven primarily by the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark released March 25, 2026, where frontier models like GPT-5.4 scored just 0.26%—far below human performance at 100%—exposing persistent gaps in abstract reasoning and generalization despite scaling advances. OpenAI leaders, including President Greg Brockman stating 70-80% progress toward AGI in recent interviews, have fueled optimism via team rebrands like "AGI Deployment," yet no formal board determination or announcement has materialized, adhering to strict internal criteria. With nine months remaining, upcoming model releases and compute-intensive scaling efforts represent key catalysts, though benchmark shortfalls and definitional debates sustain skepticism among capital-backed traders.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$47,323
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 23% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 23¢, the market collectively assigns a 23% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" has generated $47.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 28, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" is 23% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 23% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.