Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition

Market icon

Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition

>99% chance
Polymarket

$635,329 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$635,329 Vol.

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Nuclear weapon detonated
- Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize
- Ukraine election called
- US-Russia nuclear deal
- Mass Gaza population relocation
- Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war2.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war3.png
Volume
$635,329
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Sep 10, 2025, 8:11 PM ET
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Nuclear weapon detonated - Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize - Ukraine election called - US-Russia nuclear deal - Mass Gaza population relocation - Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war1.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war2.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war3.png

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Nuclear weapon detonated
- Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize
- Ukraine election called
- US-Russia nuclear deal
- Mass Gaza population relocation
- Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war2.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war3.png
Volume
$635,329
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Sep 10, 2025, 8:11 PM ET
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Nuclear weapon detonated - Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize - Ukraine election called - US-Russia nuclear deal - Mass Gaza population relocation - Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war1.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war2.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war3.png

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition" has generated $635.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.