Name: Next President of Iran?
Start: 2024-05-21T02:09:01.731014Z
End: 2024-07-20T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mohammad Mokhber becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Mohammad Mokhber

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moshen Rezaee becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Moshen Rezaee

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any person other than Mohammad Mokhber, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili, Moshen Rezaee, Saeed Jalili, Mehrdad Bazrpash, Ali Larijani, Javad Zarif, Ali Akbar Salehi, Abdolnaser Hemmati, Ali Shamkhani, Mojtaba Khamenei, or Hassan Rouhani becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used. 

Other (Incl. Pezeshkian)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saeed Jalili becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Saeed Jalili

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mehrdad Bazrpash becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Mehrdad Bazrpash

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ali Larijani becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Ali Larijani

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Javad Zarif becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Javad Zarif

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ali Akbar Salehi becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Ali Akbar Salehi

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abdolnaser Hemmati becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Abdolnaser Hemmati

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ali Shamkhani becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Ali Shamkhani

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mojtaba Khamenei becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Mojtaba Khamenei

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hassan Rouhani becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

 Hassan Rouhani

Next President of Iran?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".


1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 18, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.


2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". 

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei speak directly to one another between June 26, 7:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any conversation that occurs directly between Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei will qualify, regardless of whether it is over the phone, videocall, or in person. The conversation must be voice-based, not text-based.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the governments of Iran and the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Iran for combat operations at any point between June 21, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

High ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US forces in Iran in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?

Tehran, the Iranian capital, is experiencing a crisis as a historic drought has led the local water supply to run low. You can read more about that here: https://www.newsweek.com/irans-capital-running-dry-in-historic-water-crisis-10987433.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the national government of Iran, the government of Tehran Province, or the government of Tehran Municipality, including the Tehran City Council, orders a major evacuation of the city of Tehran due to the ongoing water crisis by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

A major evacuation order is defined as an official government order mandating or instructing a majority of Tehran’s residents to leave the city. The order must explicitly reference the ongoing water shortage or associated infrastructure failure as a primary reason for evacuation to qualify for resolution.

A limited evacuation order affecting only a minority of the residential population of the city of Tehran, or an evacuation order due primarily to reasons other than the ongoing water crisis will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Iranian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Evacuation of Tehran ordered in 2025?

On June 13, Iranian leaders announced they no longer plan to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5348689-iran-nuclear-deal-talks-suspended/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that official nuclear-related negotiations between the United States and Iran resume at any point on by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the talks must involve official representatives of both governments and focus primarily on nuclear issues, such as uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, IAEA inspections, or the JCPOA. Talks may be direct or mediated, and may occur in person or virtually.

Only the actual resumption of talks will count; announcements that talks have been scheduled to resume will not alone qualify.

Unofficial backchannel communications, general diplomatic meetings not centered on nuclear issues, or one-sided public proposals will not qualify.

The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? 

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 ET:

- Trump out as US President
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine President
- Nicolás Maduro out as Venezuela's President
- Netanyahu out as Prime Minister of Israel
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Starmer out as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between December 16, 2025 and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Joseph Aoun will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Lebanon within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31, 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Pakistan within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Indonesia president, Prabowo Subianto, is removed from power for any length of time between September 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Prabowo Subianto will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Indonesia within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Subianto out as president of Indonesia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mahmoud Abbas will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of the Palestinian National Authority within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the Palestinian Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Prime Minister of the Morocco Aziz Akhannouch is removed from power for any length of time between October 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Aziz Akhannouch will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Morocco within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Next President of Iran?

Mohammad Mokhber
$9,246 Vol.
No

Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili
$4,755 Vol.
No

Moshen Rezaee
$10,468 Vol.
No

Other (Incl. Pezeshkian)
$39,807 Vol.
Yes

Saeed Jalili
$75,406 Vol.
No

Mehrdad Bazrpash
$5,669 Vol.
No

Ali Larijani
$12,723 Vol.
No

Javad Zarif
$9,437 Vol.
No

Ali Akbar Salehi
$9,057 Vol.
No

Abdolnaser Hemmati
$8,016 Vol.
No

Ali Shamkhani
$7,233 Vol.
No

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$36,537 Vol.
No

Mojtaba Khamenei
$11,455 Vol.
No

Hassan Rouhani
$7,044 Vol.
No

Market Context

Next President of Iran?

Rules

Next President of Iran?

Market Context

Next President of Iran?

About

Related

Next President of Iran?

Mohammad Mokhber$9,246 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili$4,755 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Moshen Rezaee$10,468 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Other (Incl. Pezeshkian)$39,807 Vol.Yescircle check

Saeed Jalili$75,406 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Mehrdad Bazrpash$5,669 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Ali Larijani$12,723 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Javad Zarif$9,437 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Ali Akbar Salehi$9,057 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Abdolnaser Hemmati$8,016 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Ali Shamkhani$7,233 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf$36,537 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Mojtaba Khamenei$11,455 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Hassan Rouhani$7,044 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Next President of Iran?

Rules

Next President of Iran?

Market Context

Next President of Iran?

About

Related

Mohammad Mokhber
$9,246 Vol.
No

Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili
$4,755 Vol.
No

Moshen Rezaee
$10,468 Vol.
No

Other (Incl. Pezeshkian)
$39,807 Vol.
Yes

Saeed Jalili
$75,406 Vol.
No

Mehrdad Bazrpash
$5,669 Vol.
No

Ali Larijani
$12,723 Vol.
No

Javad Zarif
$9,437 Vol.
No

Ali Akbar Salehi
$9,057 Vol.
No

Abdolnaser Hemmati
$8,016 Vol.
No

Ali Shamkhani
$7,233 Vol.
No

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$36,537 Vol.
No

Mojtaba Khamenei
$11,455 Vol.
No

Hassan Rouhani
$7,044 Vol.
No