Next leader out of power before 2027?
Schoof - Netherlands PM 63%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 13%
Takaichi - Japan PM 5.2%
Orbán - Hungary PM 2.9%
$2,622,043 Vol.
$2,622,043 Vol.
Schoof - Netherlands PM
$111,200 Vol.
63%
Schoof - Netherlands PM
$111,200 Vol.
63%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
$110,132 Vol.
13%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
$110,132 Vol.
13%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$104,708 Vol.
5%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$104,708 Vol.
5%
Orbán - Hungary PM
$95,891 Vol.
3%
Orbán - Hungary PM
$95,891 Vol.
3%
Trump - USA President
$140,513 Vol.
2%
Trump - USA President
$140,513 Vol.
2%
Lecornu - France PM
$100,332 Vol.
2%
Lecornu - France PM
$100,332 Vol.
2%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$115,262 Vol.
2%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$115,262 Vol.
2%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$94,308 Vol.
2%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$94,308 Vol.
2%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$86,876 Vol.
2%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$86,876 Vol.
2%
None before 2027
$107,846 Vol.
1%
None before 2027
$107,846 Vol.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$94,956 Vol.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$94,956 Vol.
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$86,303 Vol.
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$86,303 Vol.
1%
Putin - Russia President
$98,643 Vol.
1%
Putin - Russia President
$98,643 Vol.
1%
Starmer - UK PM
$84,044 Vol.
1%
Starmer - UK PM
$84,044 Vol.
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$74,391 Vol.
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$74,391 Vol.
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$94,708 Vol.
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$94,708 Vol.
<1%
Macron - France President
$71,853 Vol.
<1%
Macron - France President
$71,853 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$100,910 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$100,910 Vol.
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$104,503 Vol.
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$104,503 Vol.
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$119,547 Vol.
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$119,547 Vol.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$120,219 Vol.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$120,219 Vol.
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$92,722 Vol.
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$92,722 Vol.
<1%
Petro - Colombia President
$83,619 Vol.
<1%
Petro - Colombia President
$83,619 Vol.
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$79,295 Vol.
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$79,295 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$92,916 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$92,916 Vol.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$82,897 Vol.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$82,897 Vol.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$73,445 Vol.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$73,445 Vol.
<1%
Rules
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Next leader out of power before 2027?
Schoof - Netherlands PM 63%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 13%
Takaichi - Japan PM 5.2%
Orbán - Hungary PM 2.9%
$2,622,043 Vol.
$2,622,043 Vol.
Schoof - Netherlands PM
63%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
13%
Takaichi - Japan PM
5%
Orbán - Hungary PM
3%
Trump - USA President
2%
Lecornu - France PM
2%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
2%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
2%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
2%
None before 2027
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
1%
Putin - Russia President
1%
Starmer - UK PM
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Petro - Colombia President
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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