Next leader out of power before 2027?
Schoof - Netherlands PM 66%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 15%
Takaichi - Japan PM 5.1%
Orbán - Hungary PM 2.4%
$2,686,751 Vol.
$2,686,751 Vol.
Schoof - Netherlands PM
$114,907 Vol.
66%
Schoof - Netherlands PM
$114,907 Vol.
66%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
$113,531 Vol.
15%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
$113,531 Vol.
15%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$107,676 Vol.
5%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$107,676 Vol.
5%
Orbán - Hungary PM
$99,310 Vol.
2%
Orbán - Hungary PM
$99,310 Vol.
2%
Trump - USA President
$142,711 Vol.
2%
Trump - USA President
$142,711 Vol.
2%
Lecornu - France PM
$102,460 Vol.
2%
Lecornu - France PM
$102,460 Vol.
2%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$117,067 Vol.
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$117,067 Vol.
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$95,827 Vol.
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$95,827 Vol.
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$88,655 Vol.
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$88,655 Vol.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$97,119 Vol.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$97,119 Vol.
1%
Starmer - UK PM
$85,832 Vol.
1%
Starmer - UK PM
$85,832 Vol.
1%
Putin - Russia President
$103,520 Vol.
1%
Putin - Russia President
$103,520 Vol.
1%
Macron - France President
$74,252 Vol.
1%
Macron - France President
$74,252 Vol.
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$87,895 Vol.
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$87,895 Vol.
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$75,985 Vol.
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$75,985 Vol.
1%
None before 2027
$110,126 Vol.
1%
None before 2027
$110,126 Vol.
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$96,302 Vol.
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$96,302 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$102,709 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$102,709 Vol.
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$81,686 Vol.
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$81,686 Vol.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$121,788 Vol.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$121,788 Vol.
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$94,345 Vol.
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$94,345 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$94,490 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$94,490 Vol.
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$121,133 Vol.
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$121,133 Vol.
<1%
Petro - Colombia President
$86,072 Vol.
<1%
Petro - Colombia President
$86,072 Vol.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$86,970 Vol.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$86,970 Vol.
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$109,464 Vol.
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$109,464 Vol.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$74,918 Vol.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$74,918 Vol.
<1%
Rules
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Next leader out of power before 2027?
Schoof - Netherlands PM 66%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 15%
Takaichi - Japan PM 5.1%
Orbán - Hungary PM 2.4%
$2,686,751 Vol.
$2,686,751 Vol.
Schoof - Netherlands PM
66%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
15%
Takaichi - Japan PM
5%
Orbán - Hungary PM
2%
Trump - USA President
2%
Lecornu - France PM
2%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
1%
Starmer - UK PM
1%
Putin - Russia President
1%
Macron - France President
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
None before 2027
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Petro - Colombia President
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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