Next CEO of Apple?

Name: Next CEO of Apple?
Start: 2025-11-18T20:15:42.528Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Tech·Big Tech

Next CEO of Apple?

John Ternus 45%

Sabih Khan 19%

Craig Federighi 8.3%

Greg Joswiak 2.2%

$578,399 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

John Ternus

$571,118 Vol.

45%

Sabih Khan

$7,281 Vol.

19%

Craig Federighi

$0 Vol.

Greg Joswiak

$0 Vol.

John Ternus 45%

Sabih Khan 19%

Craig Federighi 8.3%

Greg Joswiak 2.2%

$578,399 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

John Ternus

$571,118 Vol.

45%

Sabih Khan

$7,281 Vol.

19%

Craig Federighi

$0 Vol.

Greg Joswiak

$0 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering, as the frontrunner at 45.5% implied probability to succeed Tim Cook, propelled by his pivotal role in the Apple Silicon transition, M-series chip advancements, and high-profile keynote appearances that signal internal grooming for leadership. Sabih Khan follows at 20%, credited with resilient supply chain management amid U.S.-China tensions and chip shortages, bolstering Apple's manufacturing edge. Craig Federighi (8.3%) and Greg Joswiak (2.1%) trail due to their software engineering and marketing expertise, respectively, though less visible in operations. Recent catalysts include Cook's October 2024 earnings call reaffirming no imminent departure at age 64, yet underscoring Ternus's WWDC visibility and Khan's operational wins, sustaining speculative odds absent an official successor announcement.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 22, 2026, 8:13 AM UTC

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next CEO of Apple?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Ternus" at 45%, followed by "Sabih Khan" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next CEO of Apple?" has generated $578.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next CEO of Apple?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next CEO of Apple?" is "John Ternus" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sabih Khan" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next CEO of Apple?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Next CEO of Apple?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $578.4K traded on “Next CEO of Apple?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Next CEO of Apple?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 45¢ for "John Ternus" in the "Next CEO of Apple?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 45% chance that "John Ternus" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 45¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 55¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Next CEO of Apple?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Next CEO of Apple?" market has a growing discussion of 6 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Next CEO of Apple?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Next CEO of Apple?

Next CEO of Apple?

Rules

Market Context

Market Context

Comments (6)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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