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New Half-Life game by...?

Market icon

New Half-Life game by...?

$15,989 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$15,989 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$3,824 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.Trader sentiment on the developer behind a potential new Half-Life game hinges on Valve's ironclad secrecy and recent datamined clues like "hlx_physics_particle_spawner" in the April CS2 beta and GPU particle tech in late March Dota 2 updates, fueling speculation that HLX is the internal codename for Half-Life 3. No official announcements have materialized in the past 30 days, leaving rumors dominant—many link the project to Valve's teased Steam Machine console as a spring 2026 launch title, echoing the Half-Life: Alyx bundle with Valve Index. Absent credible external studio reports, implied probabilities favor Valve's in-house team leveraging Source 2 advancements. Watch Steam events for reveals, as datamining and hardware timelines could shift consensus rapidly.

This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$15,989
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.Trader sentiment on the developer behind a potential new Half-Life game hinges on Valve's ironclad secrecy and recent datamined clues like "hlx_physics_particle_spawner" in the April CS2 beta and GPU particle tech in late March Dota 2 updates, fueling speculation that HLX is the internal codename for Half-Life 3. No official announcements have materialized in the past 30 days, leaving rumors dominant—many link the project to Valve's teased Steam Machine console as a spring 2026 launch title, echoing the Half-Life: Alyx bundle with Valve Index. Absent credible external studio reports, implied probabilities favor Valve's in-house team leveraging Source 2 advancements. Watch Steam events for reveals, as datamining and hardware timelines could shift consensus rapidly.

This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$15,989
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"New Half-Life game by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 7%, followed by "December 31, 2025" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "New Half-Life game by...?" has generated $16K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "New Half-Life game by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "New Half-Life game by...?" is "June 30, 2026" at just 7%, with "December 31, 2025" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "New Half-Life game by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.