Valve’s repeated failure to deliver on 2025 announcement windows has anchored trader skepticism, with multiple high-profile leakers missing targets tied to new Steam hardware launches and The Game Awards. Ongoing silence from the studio, combined with its track record of extended development cycles and selective communication, sustains the 59.5% implied probability for no reveal before 2027. While datamining and insider chatter continue to signal active work on a new Half-Life title, the absence of any official confirmation or precursor signals keeps momentum toward delay. Key catalysts ahead include potential summer showcases or late-year events that could shift sentiment if Valve breaks its pattern.