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icon for "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)

"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)

icon for "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)

"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)

Ended: Apr 20

May 11

May 11

May 11

May 11

Ended: Apr 20

May 11

May 11

May 11

May 11

34-37m 100.0%

<31m <1%

31-34m <1%

37-40m <1%

Polymarket

$382,828 Vol.

34-37m 100.0%

<31m <1%

31-34m <1%

37-40m <1%

Polymarket

$382,828 Vol.

<31m

$66,843 Vol.

No

31-34m

$54,801 Vol.

No

34-37m

$115,973 Vol.

Yes

37-40m

$105,343 Vol.

No

>40m

$39,869 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Universal and Illumination's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie powered to a commanding $35 million domestic gross in its third weekend, topping charts for the third straight frame and pushing its North American cume past $355 million, per studio estimates from trackers like Box Office Mojo. This performance— a respectable 49% drop from its $69 million second weekend—reflects robust family turnout, glowing word-of-mouth (echoing the 2023 Super Mario Bros. blockbuster's legendary legs), and minimal competition erosion despite Lee Cronin's The Mummy's middling $13-34 million debut. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 34-37m underscores tight alignment with final tallies historically matching Sunday projections; realistic upsets would require anomalous Friday-Sunday variances or audit adjustments exceeding 5%, scenarios rare for animated holdovers.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$382,828
End Date
Apr 20, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Universal and Illumination's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie powered to a commanding $35 million domestic gross in its third weekend, topping charts for the third straight frame and pushing its North American cume past $355 million, per studio estimates from trackers like Box Office Mojo. This performance— a respectable 49% drop from its $69 million second weekend—reflects robust family turnout, glowing word-of-mouth (echoing the 2023 Super Mario Bros. blockbuster's legendary legs), and minimal competition erosion despite Lee Cronin's The Mummy's middling $13-34 million debut. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 34-37m underscores tight alignment with final tallies historically matching Sunday projections; realistic upsets would require anomalous Friday-Sunday variances or audit adjustments exceeding 5%, scenarios rare for animated holdovers.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$382,828
End Date
Apr 20, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "34-37m" at 100%, followed by "<31m" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)" has generated $382.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)" is "34-37m" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<31m" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.