Trader consensus prices a 59% chance of US-Israeli military action against Iran continuing through April 30, reflecting skepticism over President Trump's April 2 national address claiming the conflict—now on day 34 since late February strikes—is "nearing completion" while vowing "very hard" hits in the coming weeks. Iran's fresh missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states on April 2, alongside ongoing US airstrikes targeting IRGC command posts, missile sites, and infrastructure like Isfahan facilities, signal persistent escalation rather than de-escalation. Recent reports of over 11,000 combat sorties in Operation Epic Fury underscore degraded but resilient Iranian capabilities, with no verified ceasefire talks, keeping shorter-term end dates below 7% amid oil market volatility and proxy threats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action through April 30 59%
April 30 6.2%
April 26 5.3%
April 17 4.4%
$123,362 Vol.
$123,362 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
<1%
April 1
<1%
April 2
1%
April 3
1%
April 4
1%
April 5
1%
April 6
2%
April 7
2%
April 8
3%
April 9
2%
April 10
1%
April 11
2%
April 12
1%
April 13
3%
April 14
2%
April 15
2%
April 16
4%
April 17
4%
April 18
2%
April 19
3%
April 20
3%
April 21
3%
April 22
4%
April 23
3%
April 24
4%
April 25
4%
April 26
5%
April 27
4%
April 28
1%
April 29
3%
April 30
6%
Military action through April 30
59%
Military action through April 30 59%
April 30 6.2%
April 26 5.3%
April 17 4.4%
$123,362 Vol.
$123,362 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
$5,191 Vol.
<1%
April 1
$17,427 Vol.
<1%
April 2
$14,079 Vol.
1%
April 3
$7,300 Vol.
1%
April 4
$2,861 Vol.
1%
April 5
$2,142 Vol.
1%
April 6
$2,441 Vol.
2%
April 7
$7,746 Vol.
2%
April 8
$2,559 Vol.
3%
April 9
$2,212 Vol.
2%
April 10
$2,225 Vol.
1%
April 11
$1,773 Vol.
2%
April 12
$1,920 Vol.
1%
April 13
$2,245 Vol.
3%
April 14
$2,160 Vol.
2%
April 15
$1,879 Vol.
2%
April 16
$1,959 Vol.
4%
April 17
$2,173 Vol.
4%
April 18
$2,030 Vol.
2%
April 19
$2,233 Vol.
3%
April 20
$2,472 Vol.
3%
April 21
$2,289 Vol.
3%
April 22
$1,985 Vol.
4%
April 23
$2,488 Vol.
3%
April 24
$2,091 Vol.
4%
April 25
$2,129 Vol.
4%
April 26
$2,102 Vol.
5%
April 27
$2,463 Vol.
4%
April 28
$1,753 Vol.
1%
April 29
$1,918 Vol.
3%
April 30
$2,904 Vol.
6%
Military action through April 30
$14,216 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 59% chance of US-Israeli military action against Iran continuing through April 30, reflecting skepticism over President Trump's April 2 national address claiming the conflict—now on day 34 since late February strikes—is "nearing completion" while vowing "very hard" hits in the coming weeks. Iran's fresh missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states on April 2, alongside ongoing US airstrikes targeting IRGC command posts, missile sites, and infrastructure like Isfahan facilities, signal persistent escalation rather than de-escalation. Recent reports of over 11,000 combat sorties in Operation Epic Fury underscore degraded but resilient Iranian capabilities, with no verified ceasefire talks, keeping shorter-term end dates below 7% amid oil market volatility and proxy threats.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$123,362End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 59% chance of US-Israeli military action against Iran continuing through April 30, reflecting skepticism over President Trump's April 2 national address claiming the conflict—now on day 34 since late February strikes—is "nearing completion" while vowing "very hard" hits in the coming weeks. Iran's fresh missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states on April 2, alongside ongoing US airstrikes targeting IRGC command posts, missile sites, and infrastructure like Isfahan facilities, signal persistent escalation rather than de-escalation. Recent reports of over 11,000 combat sorties in Operation Epic Fury underscore degraded but resilient Iranian capabilities, with no verified ceasefire talks, keeping shorter-term end dates below 7% amid oil market volatility and proxy threats.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$123,362End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a 59% chance of US-Israeli military action against Iran continuing through April 30, reflecting skepticism over President Trump's April 2 national address claiming the conflict—now on day 34 since late February strikes—is "nearing completion" while vowing "very hard" hits in the coming weeks. Iran's fresh missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states on April 2, alongside ongoing US airstrikes targeting IRGC command posts, missile sites, and infrastructure like Isfahan facilities, signal persistent escalation rather than de-escalation. Recent reports of over 11,000 combat sorties in Operation Epic Fury underscore degraded but resilient Iranian capabilities, with no verified ceasefire talks, keeping shorter-term end dates below 7% amid oil market volatility and proxy threats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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