Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection bid anchors trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democratic victory in Maryland's deep-blue electorate, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans over 2-to-1 and no GOP candidate has won since 2002. Recent filing alongside Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller in February solidified his primary path ahead of the June 23 contest, while former Gov. Larry Hogan's January decision not to run left Republicans with a weak field. A fresh UMBC poll today shows Moore's approval slipping below 50% to 48% amid budget pressures and tax hike proposals, yet structural incumbency and partisan advantages hold firm. Odds could shift via scandals, a surprise GOP nominee, or national midterm dynamics, though such barriers loom large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
94%
Republican
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$0 Vol.
94%
Republican
$8,136 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection bid anchors trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democratic victory in Maryland's deep-blue electorate, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans over 2-to-1 and no GOP candidate has won since 2002. Recent filing alongside Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller in February solidified his primary path ahead of the June 23 contest, while former Gov. Larry Hogan's January decision not to run left Republicans with a weak field. A fresh UMBC poll today shows Moore's approval slipping below 50% to 48% amid budget pressures and tax hike proposals, yet structural incumbency and partisan advantages hold firm. Odds could shift via scandals, a surprise GOP nominee, or national midterm dynamics, though such barriers loom large.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$8,136End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection bid anchors trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democratic victory in Maryland's deep-blue electorate, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans over 2-to-1 and no GOP candidate has won since 2002. Recent filing alongside Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller in February solidified his primary path ahead of the June 23 contest, while former Gov. Larry Hogan's January decision not to run left Republicans with a weak field. A fresh UMBC poll today shows Moore's approval slipping below 50% to 48% amid budget pressures and tax hike proposals, yet structural incumbency and partisan advantages hold firm. Odds could shift via scandals, a surprise GOP nominee, or national midterm dynamics, though such barriers loom large.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$8,136End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection bid anchors trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democratic victory in Maryland's deep-blue electorate, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans over 2-to-1 and no GOP candidate has won since 2002. Recent filing alongside Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller in February solidified his primary path ahead of the June 23 contest, while former Gov. Larry Hogan's January decision not to run left Republicans with a weak field. A fresh UMBC poll today shows Moore's approval slipping below 50% to 48% amid budget pressures and tax hike proposals, yet structural incumbency and partisan advantages hold firm. Odds could shift via scandals, a surprise GOP nominee, or national midterm dynamics, though such barriers loom large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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