Several open-seat contests in swing or purple states, including Georgia, Iowa, and Wisconsin, anchor trader expectations for the tightest 2026 gubernatorial margins, as term limits and retirements have produced balanced fields without strong incumbents. Texas leads the market despite its Republican tilt due to candidate dynamics and turnout variables that could narrow typical margins. Ohio and Kansas follow for similar structural reasons. Primary results, candidate recruitment quality, and any national midterm environment shifts remain the main variables that could consolidate support behind one state by clarifying the frontrunners and resource allocation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 13.9%
Iowa 11.6%
Wisconsin 11.1%
Georgia 10.2%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
14%
Iowa
12%
Wisconsin
11%
Georgia
10%
Ohio
10%
Kansas
8%
Nevada
6%
Florida
5%
Michigan
4%
Oregon
4%
Alaska
4%
Arizona
3%
Colorado
2%
New Hampshire
2%
New Mexico
1%
Maine
1%
Vermont
1%
Minnesota
1%
Texas 13.9%
Iowa 11.6%
Wisconsin 11.1%
Georgia 10.2%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,564 Vol.
14%
Iowa
$1,475 Vol.
12%
Wisconsin
$380 Vol.
11%
Georgia
$233 Vol.
10%
Ohio
$389 Vol.
10%
Kansas
$1,057 Vol.
8%
Nevada
$1,986 Vol.
6%
Florida
$193 Vol.
5%
Michigan
$324 Vol.
4%
Oregon
$314 Vol.
4%
Alaska
$201 Vol.
4%
Arizona
$259 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$238 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$250 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$189 Vol.
1%
Maine
$350 Vol.
1%
Vermont
$171 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$209 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open-seat contests in swing or purple states, including Georgia, Iowa, and Wisconsin, anchor trader expectations for the tightest 2026 gubernatorial margins, as term limits and retirements have produced balanced fields without strong incumbents. Texas leads the market despite its Republican tilt due to candidate dynamics and turnout variables that could narrow typical margins. Ohio and Kansas follow for similar structural reasons. Primary results, candidate recruitment quality, and any national midterm environment shifts remain the main variables that could consolidate support behind one state by clarifying the frontrunners and resource allocation.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$9,781End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open-seat contests in swing or purple states, including Georgia, Iowa, and Wisconsin, anchor trader expectations for the tightest 2026 gubernatorial margins, as term limits and retirements have produced balanced fields without strong incumbents. Texas leads the market despite its Republican tilt due to candidate dynamics and turnout variables that could narrow typical margins. Ohio and Kansas follow for similar structural reasons. Primary results, candidate recruitment quality, and any national midterm environment shifts remain the main variables that could consolidate support behind one state by clarifying the frontrunners and resource allocation.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,781End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several open-seat contests in swing or purple states, including Georgia, Iowa, and Wisconsin, anchor trader expectations for the tightest 2026 gubernatorial margins, as term limits and retirements have produced balanced fields without strong incumbents. Texas leads the market despite its Republican tilt due to candidate dynamics and turnout variables that could narrow typical margins. Ohio and Kansas follow for similar structural reasons. Primary results, candidate recruitment quality, and any national midterm environment shifts remain the main variables that could consolidate support behind one state by clarifying the frontrunners and resource allocation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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