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Khamenei public appearance by Friday?

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Khamenei public appearance by Friday?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$11,466 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$11,466 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing.

Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Volume
$11,466
End Date
Jan 16, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 9:58 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing.

Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Volume
$11,466
End Date
Jan 16, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 9:58 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Khamenei public appearance by Friday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Khamenei public appearance by Friday?" has generated $11.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Khamenei public appearance by Friday?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Khamenei public appearance by Friday?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Khamenei public appearance by Friday?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.