Iran has exercised de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure from what became the UAE, using the site for military installations including air defenses and missile capabilities that support Strait of Hormuz operations. Recent US Central Command strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage and coastal defense systems on the island amid broader escalation, yet Iranian administration and presence remained intact weeks later. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim through diplomatic channels, with repeated support from the GCC and Arab League for resolution via negotiation or the ICJ, but no enforcement actions or imminent territorial shifts have materialized. With the August 31, 2026 resolution window approaching amid active regional tensions, trader pricing reflects the structural barriers to any rapid transfer of control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$50,486 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
$50,486 Vol.
August 31
$27,977 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran has exercised de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure from what became the UAE, using the site for military installations including air defenses and missile capabilities that support Strait of Hormuz operations. Recent US Central Command strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage and coastal defense systems on the island amid broader escalation, yet Iranian administration and presence remained intact weeks later. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim through diplomatic channels, with repeated support from the GCC and Arab League for resolution via negotiation or the ICJ, but no enforcement actions or imminent territorial shifts have materialized. With the August 31, 2026 resolution window approaching amid active regional tensions, trader pricing reflects the structural barriers to any rapid transfer of control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$50,486End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran has exercised de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure from what became the UAE, using the site for military installations including air defenses and missile capabilities that support Strait of Hormuz operations. Recent US Central Command strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage and coastal defense systems on the island amid broader escalation, yet Iranian administration and presence remained intact weeks later. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim through diplomatic channels, with repeated support from the GCC and Arab League for resolution via negotiation or the ICJ, but no enforcement actions or imminent territorial shifts have materialized. With the August 31, 2026 resolution window approaching amid active regional tensions, trader pricing reflects the structural barriers to any rapid transfer of control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$50,486End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran has exercised de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure from what became the UAE, using the site for military installations including air defenses and missile capabilities that support Strait of Hormuz operations. Recent US Central Command strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage and coastal defense systems on the island amid broader escalation, yet Iranian administration and presence remained intact weeks later. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim through diplomatic channels, with repeated support from the GCC and Arab League for resolution via negotiation or the ICJ, but no enforcement actions or imminent territorial shifts have materialized. With the August 31, 2026 resolution window approaching amid active regional tensions, trader pricing reflects the structural barriers to any rapid transfer of control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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