Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father’s assassination amid the 2026 Iran war, yet he has remained unseen in public while issuing statements through state media. Recent developments include July reports and Israeli-sourced speculation that he had left the country or was recovering abroad from injuries, including possible facial disfigurement, which Israeli officials rejected in favor of assessments that he remains inside Iran and directs policy. In early August, Iranian state outlets released undated footage of Khamenei to counter health rumors, alongside confirmation of a late-July meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian. These factors—combined with ongoing regional tensions, limited transparency on leadership security, and scheduled state-media releases—shape trader assessments of any imminent departure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$101,809 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$101,809 Vol.
August 31
$59,907 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father’s assassination amid the 2026 Iran war, yet he has remained unseen in public while issuing statements through state media. Recent developments include July reports and Israeli-sourced speculation that he had left the country or was recovering abroad from injuries, including possible facial disfigurement, which Israeli officials rejected in favor of assessments that he remains inside Iran and directs policy. In early August, Iranian state outlets released undated footage of Khamenei to counter health rumors, alongside confirmation of a late-July meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian. These factors—combined with ongoing regional tensions, limited transparency on leadership security, and scheduled state-media releases—shape trader assessments of any imminent departure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
Volume
$101,809End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father’s assassination amid the 2026 Iran war, yet he has remained unseen in public while issuing statements through state media. Recent developments include July reports and Israeli-sourced speculation that he had left the country or was recovering abroad from injuries, including possible facial disfigurement, which Israeli officials rejected in favor of assessments that he remains inside Iran and directs policy. In early August, Iranian state outlets released undated footage of Khamenei to counter health rumors, alongside confirmation of a late-July meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian. These factors—combined with ongoing regional tensions, limited transparency on leadership security, and scheduled state-media releases—shape trader assessments of any imminent departure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,809End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father’s assassination amid the 2026 Iran war, yet he has remained unseen in public while issuing statements through state media. Recent developments include July reports and Israeli-sourced speculation that he had left the country or was recovering abroad from injuries, including possible facial disfigurement, which Israeli officials rejected in favor of assessments that he remains inside Iran and directs policy. In early August, Iranian state outlets released undated footage of Khamenei to counter health rumors, alongside confirmation of a late-July meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian. These factors—combined with ongoing regional tensions, limited transparency on leadership security, and scheduled state-media releases—shape trader assessments of any imminent departure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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