Traders on Polymarket show strong conviction with "No" at 93.5% implied probability for Justin Aguiar facing a sexual assault conviction before 2027, reflecting the total absence of confirmed charges, active investigations, or credible public allegations in verified reports. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days—or further back—leaving entertainment and culture radars silent on any such claims against him, allowing real-money bettors to price in minimal risk over the multi-year horizon. This skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with historical patterns where unsubstantiated rumors rarely lead to convictions, though realistic challenges could arise from surprise accusations, reopened cold cases, or viral social media claims prompting official scrutiny.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedJustin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
$52,149 Vol.
$52,149 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$52,149 Vol.
$52,149 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.Traders on Polymarket show strong conviction with "No" at 93.5% implied probability for Justin Aguiar facing a sexual assault conviction before 2027, reflecting the total absence of confirmed charges, active investigations, or credible public allegations in verified reports. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days—or further back—leaving entertainment and culture radars silent on any such claims against him, allowing real-money bettors to price in minimal risk over the multi-year horizon. This skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with historical patterns where unsubstantiated rumors rarely lead to convictions, though realistic challenges could arise from surprise accusations, reopened cold cases, or viral social media claims prompting official scrutiny.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$52,149End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.Traders on Polymarket show strong conviction with "No" at 93.5% implied probability for Justin Aguiar facing a sexual assault conviction before 2027, reflecting the total absence of confirmed charges, active investigations, or credible public allegations in verified reports. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days—or further back—leaving entertainment and culture radars silent on any such claims against him, allowing real-money bettors to price in minimal risk over the multi-year horizon. This skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with historical patterns where unsubstantiated rumors rarely lead to convictions, though realistic challenges could arise from surprise accusations, reopened cold cases, or viral social media claims prompting official scrutiny.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,149End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders on Polymarket show strong conviction with "No" at 93.5% implied probability for Justin Aguiar facing a sexual assault conviction before 2027, reflecting the total absence of confirmed charges, active investigations, or credible public allegations in verified reports. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days—or further back—leaving entertainment and culture radars silent on any such claims against him, allowing real-money bettors to price in minimal risk over the multi-year horizon. This skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with historical patterns where unsubstantiated rumors rarely lead to convictions, though realistic challenges could arise from surprise accusations, reopened cold cases, or viral social media claims prompting official scrutiny.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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