Trader consensus leans slightly toward the Italy judicial reform referendum failing, with "No" shares at 53.5%, driven primarily by expectations of insufficient voter turnout below the 50% quorum required for abrogative referendums to pass. Recent polls indicate participation hovering around 30-40%, hampered by public apathy, summer timing, and opposition from Prime Minister Meloni's government, which frames the five questions on magistrate careers, abuse-of-office crimes, and oversight as unnecessary disruptions. Competitive balance stems from promoter efforts by +Europa and Radicali Italiani to mobilize urban voters via digital campaigns and celebrity endorsements. Tipping points include final pre-vote surveys, June 8-9 turnout data, or surprise coalition abstention calls, as even modest mobilization could shift odds toward "Yes."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$151,009 Vol.
$151,009 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$151,009 Vol.
$151,009 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$151,009End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Volume
$151,212End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus leans slightly toward the Italy judicial reform referendum failing, with "No" shares at 53.5%, driven primarily by expectations of insufficient voter turnout below the 50% quorum required for abrogative referendums to pass. Recent polls indicate participation hovering around 30-40%, hampered by public apathy, summer timing, and opposition from Prime Minister Meloni's government, which frames the five questions on magistrate careers, abuse-of-office crimes, and oversight as unnecessary disruptions. Competitive balance stems from promoter efforts by +Europa and Radicali Italiani to mobilize urban voters via digital campaigns and celebrity endorsements. Tipping points include final pre-vote surveys, June 8-9 turnout data, or surprise coalition abstention calls, as even modest mobilization could shift odds toward "Yes."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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