Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israel Military response against Iran when?

Market icon

Israel Military response against Iran when?

Later 100.0%

Wednesday <1%

Sunday <1%

Monday or earlier <1%

Polymarket

$1,555,513 Vol.

Later 100.0%

Wednesday <1%

Sunday <1%

Monday or earlier <1%

Polymarket

$1,555,513 Vol.

Monday or earlier

$670,541 Vol.

No

Tuesday

$97,573 Vol.

No

Wednesday

$76,235 Vol.

No

Thursday

$105,418 Vol.

No

Friday

$69,710 Vol.

No

Saturday

$103,954 Vol.

No

Sunday

$130,557 Vol.

No

Later

$301,525 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel’s first military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies after October 10, occurs between October 11 and October 14, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Volume
$1,555,513
End Date
Oct 20, 2024
Market Opened
Oct 11, 2024, 5:54 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel’s first military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies after October 10, occurs between October 11 and October 14, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel Military response against Iran when? " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Later" at 100%, followed by "Monday or earlier" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel Military response against Iran when? " has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 11, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel Military response against Iran when? ," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel Military response against Iran when? " is "Later" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Monday or earlier" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel Military response against Iran when? " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.