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How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

Market icon

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

160-179 34%

140-159 33.1%

180-199 17.5%

200 or more 16%

Polymarket

$246,403 Vol.

160-179 34%

140-159 33.1%

180-199 17.5%

200 or more 16%

Polymarket

$246,403 Vol.

<100

$2,323 Vol.

2%

100-119

$1,488 Vol.

1%

120-139

$1,915 Vol.

11%

140-159

$34,194 Vol.

33%

160-179

$72,411 Vol.

34%

180-199

$57,019 Vol.

14%

200 or more

$77,053 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 140-159 (35%) and 160-179 (34%) SpaceX launches for 2026, reflecting sustained Falcon 9 cadence of roughly 13 per month—evidenced by 41 successful orbital missions through April 2, including a record 34th booster flight on March 30's Starlink deployment and dual launches that day with Transporter-16. This pace annualizes to about 160, building on 2025's record 167 flights, driven by Starlink constellation expansion and high reusability (631/634 successes). Differentiation hinges on Starship integration: no orbital flights yet, but Flight 12 targets late April from Boca Chica, with Florida pad activation and v3 engine tests potentially adding 20-50 missions if FAA approvals align. Upcoming manifest density, including NG-24 on April 8, will clarify scalability amid technical turnaround constraints.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$246,403
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 140-159 (35%) and 160-179 (34%) SpaceX launches for 2026, reflecting sustained Falcon 9 cadence of roughly 13 per month—evidenced by 41 successful orbital missions through April 2, including a record 34th booster flight on March 30's Starlink deployment and dual launches that day with Transporter-16. This pace annualizes to about 160, building on 2025's record 167 flights, driven by Starlink constellation expansion and high reusability (631/634 successes). Differentiation hinges on Starship integration: no orbital flights yet, but Flight 12 targets late April from Boca Chica, with Florida pad activation and v3 engine tests potentially adding 20-50 missions if FAA approvals align. Upcoming manifest density, including NG-24 on April 8, will clarify scalability amid technical turnaround constraints.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$246,403
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Related

Market icon

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?

59%
Market icon

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

49%
Market icon

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

96%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "160-179" at 34%, followed by "140-159" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" has generated $246.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" is "160-179" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "140-159" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.