Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Wuhan on April 1, driven by official observations from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport (ZHHH), the market's resolution source, which recorded a midday peak of 24°C under clear skies and a stabilizing high-pressure ridge. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) intraday updates and model consensus from ECMWF and GFS aligned with this outcome, showing afternoon readings topping out amid light southerly winds and low humidity, exceeding early-April climatological averages of 20–22°C. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-afternoon radiational heating spike to 25°C+ if prolonged sunshine persists, though evening cooling and observational closure make revisions unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected shortly after midnight UTC.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on April 1?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 1?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$85,883 Vol.
$85,883 Vol.
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$85,883 Vol.
$85,883 Vol.
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Wuhan on April 1, driven by official observations from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport (ZHHH), the market's resolution source, which recorded a midday peak of 24°C under clear skies and a stabilizing high-pressure ridge. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) intraday updates and model consensus from ECMWF and GFS aligned with this outcome, showing afternoon readings topping out amid light southerly winds and low humidity, exceeding early-April climatological averages of 20–22°C. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-afternoon radiational heating spike to 25°C+ if prolonged sunshine persists, though evening cooling and observational closure make revisions unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected shortly after midnight UTC.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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