Latest numerical weather prediction model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw's highest temperature on April 6 clustering tightly at 11-12°C, driving trader consensus with 11°C at 37.5% and 12°C at 29.5% implied probabilities. This reflects a sharp cooling trend following today's highs near 20°C, as a cold front ushers in west-northwesterly winds, showers, and increased cloud cover—conditions confirmed by sites like yr.no (max 11°C with 3.4 mm precip) and The Weather Network (12°C with 90% shower risk). Differentiating factors include morning rain persistence capping peaks at 11°C versus drier afternoons enabling 12°C, amid typical early-April variability around 12°C climatological averages. Overnight 00Z model updates may sharpen resolution before tomorrow's observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
11°C 42%
12°C 29%
13°C 14%
10°C 10.9%
$11,260 Vol.
$11,260 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
11%
11°C
42%
12°C
29%
13°C
14%
14°C
3%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 42%
12°C 29%
13°C 14%
10°C 10.9%
$11,260 Vol.
$11,260 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
7°C or below
$474 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$2,140 Vol.
1%
9°C
$1,639 Vol.
3%
10°C
$627 Vol.
11%
11°C
$761 Vol.
42%
12°C
$918 Vol.
29%
13°C
$942 Vol.
14%
14°C
$659 Vol.
3%
15°C
$556 Vol.
1%
16°C
$1,524 Vol.
1%
17°C or higher
$1,035 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw's highest temperature on April 6 clustering tightly at 11-12°C, driving trader consensus with 11°C at 37.5% and 12°C at 29.5% implied probabilities. This reflects a sharp cooling trend following today's highs near 20°C, as a cold front ushers in west-northwesterly winds, showers, and increased cloud cover—conditions confirmed by sites like yr.no (max 11°C with 3.4 mm precip) and The Weather Network (12°C with 90% shower risk). Differentiating factors include morning rain persistence capping peaks at 11°C versus drier afternoons enabling 12°C, amid typical early-April variability around 12°C climatological averages. Overnight 00Z model updates may sharpen resolution before tomorrow's observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$11,260End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw's highest temperature on April 6 clustering tightly at 11-12°C, driving trader consensus with 11°C at 37.5% and 12°C at 29.5% implied probabilities. This reflects a sharp cooling trend following today's highs near 20°C, as a cold front ushers in west-northwesterly winds, showers, and increased cloud cover—conditions confirmed by sites like yr.no (max 11°C with 3.4 mm precip) and The Weather Network (12°C with 90% shower risk). Differentiating factors include morning rain persistence capping peaks at 11°C versus drier afternoons enabling 12°C, amid typical early-April variability around 12°C climatological averages. Overnight 00Z model updates may sharpen resolution before tomorrow's observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,260End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw's highest temperature on April 6 clustering tightly at 11-12°C, driving trader consensus with 11°C at 37.5% and 12°C at 29.5% implied probabilities. This reflects a sharp cooling trend following today's highs near 20°C, as a cold front ushers in west-northwesterly winds, showers, and increased cloud cover—conditions confirmed by sites like yr.no (max 11°C with 3.4 mm precip) and The Weather Network (12°C with 90% shower risk). Differentiating factors include morning rain persistence capping peaks at 11°C versus drier afternoons enabling 12°C, amid typical early-April variability around 12°C climatological averages. Overnight 00Z model updates may sharpen resolution before tomorrow's observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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