Environment Canada's latest extended forecast, issued March 30, pegs Toronto's April 1 high temperature at 9°C under cloudy skies clearing in the afternoon with north winds gusting to 30 km/h, consistent with early April normals of 8°C amid a cooler-than-average spring outlook influenced by lingering La Niña effects and active storm tracks. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket shows tightly clustered implied probabilities around 10–14°C (10°C at 18.5%, 11°C at 21.6%, 12°C at 17.5%, 14°C+ at 20.5%), reflecting ensemble spread across global models like GFS and GEM, where some runs suggest earlier clearing or lighter winds could boost peaks via solar heating; March's volatile swings from 20°C warmth to cool snaps heighten uncertainty, with final 12Z updates expected today to refine land surface conditions and boundary layer dynamics ahead of resolution based on official Pearson Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on April 1?
Highest temperature in Toronto on April 1?
11°C 21.3%
14°C or higher 21%
10°C 19%
12°C 18%
NEW
$49,334 Vol.
NEW
$49,334 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
2%
7°C
2%
8°C
4%
9°C
5%
10°C
19%
11°C
21%
12°C
18%
13°C
9%
14°C or higher
21%
11°C 21.3%
14°C or higher 21%
10°C 19%
12°C 18%
NEW
$49,334 Vol.
NEW
$49,334 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
4°C or below
$11,742 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$8,691 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$3,033 Vol.
2%
7°C
$2,699 Vol.
2%
8°C
$3,057 Vol.
4%
9°C
$3,922 Vol.
5%
10°C
$3,277 Vol.
19%
11°C
$2,040 Vol.
21%
12°C
$2,093 Vol.
18%
13°C
$2,500 Vol.
9%
14°C or higher
$6,352 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Environment Canada's latest extended forecast, issued March 30, pegs Toronto's April 1 high temperature at 9°C under cloudy skies clearing in the afternoon with north winds gusting to 30 km/h, consistent with early April normals of 8°C amid a cooler-than-average spring outlook influenced by lingering La Niña effects and active storm tracks. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket shows tightly clustered implied probabilities around 10–14°C (10°C at 18.5%, 11°C at 21.6%, 12°C at 17.5%, 14°C+ at 20.5%), reflecting ensemble spread across global models like GFS and GEM, where some runs suggest earlier clearing or lighter winds could boost peaks via solar heating; March's volatile swings from 20°C warmth to cool snaps heighten uncertainty, with final 12Z updates expected today to refine land surface conditions and boundary layer dynamics ahead of resolution based on official Pearson Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$49,334End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Environment Canada's latest extended forecast, issued March 30, pegs Toronto's April 1 high temperature at 9°C under cloudy skies clearing in the afternoon with north winds gusting to 30 km/h, consistent with early April normals of 8°C amid a cooler-than-average spring outlook influenced by lingering La Niña effects and active storm tracks. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket shows tightly clustered implied probabilities around 10–14°C (10°C at 18.5%, 11°C at 21.6%, 12°C at 17.5%, 14°C+ at 20.5%), reflecting ensemble spread across global models like GFS and GEM, where some runs suggest earlier clearing or lighter winds could boost peaks via solar heating; March's volatile swings from 20°C warmth to cool snaps heighten uncertainty, with final 12Z updates expected today to refine land surface conditions and boundary layer dynamics ahead of resolution based on official Pearson Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$49,334End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Environment Canada's latest extended forecast, issued March 30, pegs Toronto's April 1 high temperature at 9°C under cloudy skies clearing in the afternoon with north winds gusting to 30 km/h, consistent with early April normals of 8°C amid a cooler-than-average spring outlook influenced by lingering La Niña effects and active storm tracks. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket shows tightly clustered implied probabilities around 10–14°C (10°C at 18.5%, 11°C at 21.6%, 12°C at 17.5%, 14°C+ at 20.5%), reflecting ensemble spread across global models like GFS and GEM, where some runs suggest earlier clearing or lighter winds could boost peaks via solar heating; March's volatile swings from 20°C warmth to cool snaps heighten uncertainty, with final 12Z updates expected today to refine land surface conditions and boundary layer dynamics ahead of resolution based on official Pearson Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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