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Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 28

Mar 29

27°C 34%

26°C 25%

28°C 23%

29°C 11%

Polymarket

$25,027 Vol.

27°C 34%

26°C 25%

28°C 23%

29°C 11%

Polymarket

$25,027 Vol.

21°C or below

$2,193 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$2,001 Vol.

1%

23°C

$6,251 Vol.

1%

24°C

$2,130 Vol.

2%

25°C

$1,408 Vol.

7%

26°C

$1,158 Vol.

25%

27°C

$1,698 Vol.

34%

28°C

$1,340 Vol.

23%

29°C

$1,452 Vol.

11%

30°C

$2,134 Vol.

6%

31°C or higher

$3,263 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Baoan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a Shenzhen high of around 27°C on March 29, driving trader sentiment with 33% implied probability on that outcome amid a recent warm spell—29°C on March 26 followed by 25°C on March 27. Clear skies under a subtropical high-pressure ridge favor strong daytime heating, but moderating sea breezes from the South China Sea and potential afternoon cumulus clouds introduce uncertainty differentiating 26°C (22%), 27°C, and 28°C (23.5%) outcomes. Urban heat island effects at the official Bao'an station could tip toward the upper end, though historical late-March variability (averages ~24°C) underscores model divergence; watch overnight updates and early observations for shifts.

Latest forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a Shenzhen high of around 27°C on March 29, driving trader sentiment with 33% implied probability on that outcome amid a recent warm spell—29°C on March 26 followed by 25°C on March 27. Clear skies under a subtropical high-pressure ridge favor strong daytime heating, but moderating sea breezes from the South China Sea and potential afternoon cumulus clouds introduce uncertainty differentiating 26°C (22%), 27°C, and 28°C (23.5%) outcomes. Urban heat island effects at the official Bao'an station could tip toward the upper end, though historical late-March variability (averages ~24°C) underscores model divergence; watch overnight updates and early observations for shifts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Baoan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a Shenzhen high of around 27°C on March 29, driving trader sentiment with 33% implied probability on that outcome amid a recent warm spell—29°C on March 26 followed by 25°C on March 27. Clear skies under a subtropical high-pressure ridge favor strong daytime heating, but moderating sea breezes from the South China Sea and potential afternoon cumulus clouds introduce uncertainty differentiating 26°C (22%), 27°C, and 28°C (23.5%) outcomes. Urban heat island effects at the official Bao'an station could tip toward the upper end, though historical late-March variability (averages ~24°C) underscores model divergence; watch overnight updates and early observations for shifts.

Latest forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a Shenzhen high of around 27°C on March 29, driving trader sentiment with 33% implied probability on that outcome amid a recent warm spell—29°C on March 26 followed by 25°C on March 27. Clear skies under a subtropical high-pressure ridge favor strong daytime heating, but moderating sea breezes from the South China Sea and potential afternoon cumulus clouds introduce uncertainty differentiating 26°C (22%), 27°C, and 28°C (23.5%) outcomes. Urban heat island effects at the official Bao'an station could tip toward the upper end, though historical late-March variability (averages ~24°C) underscores model divergence; watch overnight updates and early observations for shifts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "27°C" at 34%, followed by "26°C" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" has generated $25K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" is "27°C" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "26°C" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.