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Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 30?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 30?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

$298,564 Vol.

Polymarket

$298,564 Vol.

22°C

$42,325 Vol.

100%

23°C or higher

$74,872 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.8% implied probability to a 22°C high temperature in Shanghai on March 30, driven by official hourly observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—which peaked at 22°C around midday local time per recent METAR reports (e.g., 22/17°C at 1500 CST amid light rain). Increasing cloud cover and precipitation, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration monitoring, have suppressed further warming despite earlier model runs suggesting potential for 20–23°C. Historical March averages hover near 15–18°C, making this a mild outlier. Realistic challenges include improbable late-afternoon clearing for solar reheating, with final CMA daily maximum report expected post-midnight.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.8% implied probability to a 22°C high temperature in Shanghai on March 30, driven by official hourly observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—which peaked at 22°C around midday local time per recent METAR reports (e.g., 22/17°C at 1500 CST amid light rain). Increasing cloud cover and precipitation, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration monitoring, have suppressed further warming despite earlier model runs suggesting potential for 20–23°C. Historical March averages hover near 15–18°C, making this a mild outlier. Realistic challenges include improbable late-afternoon clearing for solar reheating, with final CMA daily maximum report expected post-midnight.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.8% implied probability to a 22°C high temperature in Shanghai on March 30, driven by official hourly observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—which peaked at 22°C around midday local time per recent METAR reports (e.g., 22/17°C at 1500 CST amid light rain). Increasing cloud cover and precipitation, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration monitoring, have suppressed further warming despite earlier model runs suggesting potential for 20–23°C. Historical March averages hover near 15–18°C, making this a mild outlier. Realistic challenges include improbable late-afternoon clearing for solar reheating, with final CMA daily maximum report expected post-midnight.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.8% implied probability to a 22°C high temperature in Shanghai on March 30, driven by official hourly observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—which peaked at 22°C around midday local time per recent METAR reports (e.g., 22/17°C at 1500 CST amid light rain). Increasing cloud cover and precipitation, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration monitoring, have suppressed further warming despite earlier model runs suggesting potential for 20–23°C. Historical March averages hover near 15–18°C, making this a mild outlier. Realistic challenges include improbable late-afternoon clearing for solar reheating, with final CMA daily maximum report expected post-midnight.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "22°C" at 100%, followed by "23°C or higher" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 30?" has generated $298.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 30?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 30?" is "22°C" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "23°C or higher" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.