Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts center Shanghai's April 4 high temperature around 20–21°C means, with member spreads over 5°C fueling the tight trader consensus on 21°C (30.5% implied probability), 22°C (24.5%), and 20°C (18.5%). This reflects springtime East Asian variability, where southerly flows from warmer subtropical air compete with potential cold frontal passages or marine stratus clouds that could cap peaks by 1–2°C; recent observations show above-climatological warmth (early April average ~18°C) amid mostly clear skies over the past week. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon cloudiness and urban heat island amplification in Shanghai. New 00Z runs from CMA, GFS, and ECMWF, due within 24 hours, may refine odds as resolution nears via official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
21°C 29%
22°C 25%
20°C 18%
23°C 13%
$22,203 Vol.
$22,203 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
5%
19°C
7%
20°C
18%
21°C
29%
22°C
25%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
7%
21°C 29%
22°C 25%
20°C 18%
23°C 13%
$22,203 Vol.
$22,203 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
14°C or below
$4,236 Vol.
1%
15°C
$2,314 Vol.
1%
16°C
$1,875 Vol.
1%
17°C
$2,045 Vol.
2%
18°C
$1,810 Vol.
5%
19°C
$1,689 Vol.
7%
20°C
$1,616 Vol.
18%
21°C
$1,531 Vol.
29%
22°C
$1,914 Vol.
25%
23°C
$1,603 Vol.
13%
24°C or higher
$1,571 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts center Shanghai's April 4 high temperature around 20–21°C means, with member spreads over 5°C fueling the tight trader consensus on 21°C (30.5% implied probability), 22°C (24.5%), and 20°C (18.5%). This reflects springtime East Asian variability, where southerly flows from warmer subtropical air compete with potential cold frontal passages or marine stratus clouds that could cap peaks by 1–2°C; recent observations show above-climatological warmth (early April average ~18°C) amid mostly clear skies over the past week. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon cloudiness and urban heat island amplification in Shanghai. New 00Z runs from CMA, GFS, and ECMWF, due within 24 hours, may refine odds as resolution nears via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Volume
$22,203End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts center Shanghai's April 4 high temperature around 20–21°C means, with member spreads over 5°C fueling the tight trader consensus on 21°C (30.5% implied probability), 22°C (24.5%), and 20°C (18.5%). This reflects springtime East Asian variability, where southerly flows from warmer subtropical air compete with potential cold frontal passages or marine stratus clouds that could cap peaks by 1–2°C; recent observations show above-climatological warmth (early April average ~18°C) amid mostly clear skies over the past week. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon cloudiness and urban heat island amplification in Shanghai. New 00Z runs from CMA, GFS, and ECMWF, due within 24 hours, may refine odds as resolution nears via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,203End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts center Shanghai's April 4 high temperature around 20–21°C means, with member spreads over 5°C fueling the tight trader consensus on 21°C (30.5% implied probability), 22°C (24.5%), and 20°C (18.5%). This reflects springtime East Asian variability, where southerly flows from warmer subtropical air compete with potential cold frontal passages or marine stratus clouds that could cap peaks by 1–2°C; recent observations show above-climatological warmth (early April average ~18°C) amid mostly clear skies over the past week. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon cloudiness and urban heat island amplification in Shanghai. New 00Z runs from CMA, GFS, and ECMWF, due within 24 hours, may refine odds as resolution nears via official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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