National Weather Service forecasts for Central Park, the official NYC temperature station, project a high of 77°F today, aligning with trader consensus at 96% implied probability for 74°F or higher amid a persistent warm spell in March 2026 that has already shattered multiple records, including an 89°F peak earlier this month. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph are advecting Gulf-sourced warm air under a strengthening upper-level ridge, boosting temperatures 20°F above the long-term March 31 average of 55°F, per NOAA climatology. Model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on mid-to-upper 70s peaks between 2-5 PM. Realistic challenges include persistent morning overcast expanding into afternoon showers (30% chance), capping heating below 74°F, or an unanticipated frontal boundary hastening cooldown. Hourly Central Park observations will refine this through evening resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on March 31?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 31?
74°F or higher 97.0%
72-73°F 1.6%
70-71°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$360,372 Vol.
$360,372 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
2%
74°F or higher
97%
74°F or higher 97.0%
72-73°F 1.6%
70-71°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$360,372 Vol.
$360,372 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
64-65°F
$22,780 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$24,188 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$19,769 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$33,916 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$35,689 Vol.
2%
74°F or higher
$54,236 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Central Park, the official NYC temperature station, project a high of 77°F today, aligning with trader consensus at 96% implied probability for 74°F or higher amid a persistent warm spell in March 2026 that has already shattered multiple records, including an 89°F peak earlier this month. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph are advecting Gulf-sourced warm air under a strengthening upper-level ridge, boosting temperatures 20°F above the long-term March 31 average of 55°F, per NOAA climatology. Model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on mid-to-upper 70s peaks between 2-5 PM. Realistic challenges include persistent morning overcast expanding into afternoon showers (30% chance), capping heating below 74°F, or an unanticipated frontal boundary hastening cooldown. Hourly Central Park observations will refine this through evening resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Volume
$360,372End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Central Park, the official NYC temperature station, project a high of 77°F today, aligning with trader consensus at 96% implied probability for 74°F or higher amid a persistent warm spell in March 2026 that has already shattered multiple records, including an 89°F peak earlier this month. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph are advecting Gulf-sourced warm air under a strengthening upper-level ridge, boosting temperatures 20°F above the long-term March 31 average of 55°F, per NOAA climatology. Model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on mid-to-upper 70s peaks between 2-5 PM. Realistic challenges include persistent morning overcast expanding into afternoon showers (30% chance), capping heating below 74°F, or an unanticipated frontal boundary hastening cooldown. Hourly Central Park observations will refine this through evening resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$360,372End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts for Central Park, the official NYC temperature station, project a high of 77°F today, aligning with trader consensus at 96% implied probability for 74°F or higher amid a persistent warm spell in March 2026 that has already shattered multiple records, including an 89°F peak earlier this month. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph are advecting Gulf-sourced warm air under a strengthening upper-level ridge, boosting temperatures 20°F above the long-term March 31 average of 55°F, per NOAA climatology. Model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on mid-to-upper 70s peaks between 2-5 PM. Realistic challenges include persistent morning overcast expanding into afternoon showers (30% chance), capping heating below 74°F, or an unanticipated frontal boundary hastening cooldown. Hourly Central Park observations will refine this through evening resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions