National Weather Service guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Miami's highest temperature on April 7 at 77-82°F under a persistent high pressure ridge promoting mostly sunny skies and light winds, with trader consensus aggregating to 78-81°F as leading outcomes reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of coastal moderation. The close contest between 78-79°F (36.5% implied probability) and 80-81°F (27.5%) stems from model disagreements on sea breeze onset timing—earlier onshore flow favors the lower bin by enhancing evaporative cooling along the urban coast, while delayed development allows greater diurnal heating inland before breeze penetration. Slightly below April climatological norms of 82-83°F, these odds incorporate recent observational data from April 4 showing mild overnight lows near 72°F. Watch for 12z model updates and NWS forecast refinements on April 5, which could sharpen resolution amid inherent short-range uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on April 7?
Highest temperature in Miami on April 7?
78-79°F 38%
80-81°F 26%
76-77°F 18%
82-83°F 10%
$11,976 Vol.
$11,976 Vol.
Apr 7, 2026
75°F or below
7%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
38%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 38%
80-81°F 26%
76-77°F 18%
82-83°F 10%
$11,976 Vol.
$11,976 Vol.
Apr 7, 2026
75°F or below
$904 Vol.
7%
76-77°F
$1,023 Vol.
18%
78-79°F
$872 Vol.
38%
80-81°F
$966 Vol.
26%
82-83°F
$645 Vol.
10%
84-85°F
$399 Vol.
4%
86-87°F
$772 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$2,164 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$489 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$1,225 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$2,517 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Miami's highest temperature on April 7 at 77-82°F under a persistent high pressure ridge promoting mostly sunny skies and light winds, with trader consensus aggregating to 78-81°F as leading outcomes reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of coastal moderation. The close contest between 78-79°F (36.5% implied probability) and 80-81°F (27.5%) stems from model disagreements on sea breeze onset timing—earlier onshore flow favors the lower bin by enhancing evaporative cooling along the urban coast, while delayed development allows greater diurnal heating inland before breeze penetration. Slightly below April climatological norms of 82-83°F, these odds incorporate recent observational data from April 4 showing mild overnight lows near 72°F. Watch for 12z model updates and NWS forecast refinements on April 5, which could sharpen resolution amid inherent short-range uncertainties.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$11,976End Date
Apr 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Miami's highest temperature on April 7 at 77-82°F under a persistent high pressure ridge promoting mostly sunny skies and light winds, with trader consensus aggregating to 78-81°F as leading outcomes reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of coastal moderation. The close contest between 78-79°F (36.5% implied probability) and 80-81°F (27.5%) stems from model disagreements on sea breeze onset timing—earlier onshore flow favors the lower bin by enhancing evaporative cooling along the urban coast, while delayed development allows greater diurnal heating inland before breeze penetration. Slightly below April climatological norms of 82-83°F, these odds incorporate recent observational data from April 4 showing mild overnight lows near 72°F. Watch for 12z model updates and NWS forecast refinements on April 5, which could sharpen resolution amid inherent short-range uncertainties.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,976End Date
Apr 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Miami's highest temperature on April 7 at 77-82°F under a persistent high pressure ridge promoting mostly sunny skies and light winds, with trader consensus aggregating to 78-81°F as leading outcomes reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of coastal moderation. The close contest between 78-79°F (36.5% implied probability) and 80-81°F (27.5%) stems from model disagreements on sea breeze onset timing—earlier onshore flow favors the lower bin by enhancing evaporative cooling along the urban coast, while delayed development allows greater diurnal heating inland before breeze penetration. Slightly below April climatological norms of 82-83°F, these odds incorporate recent observational data from April 4 showing mild overnight lows near 72°F. Watch for 12z model updates and NWS forecast refinements on April 5, which could sharpen resolution amid inherent short-range uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions