Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 62-63°F high temperature at Chicago O'Hare International Airport on March 29, 2026, driven by the National Weather Service's official daily observations confirming this peak amid mild, partly cloudy conditions with southerly winds around 5-10 mph. NOAA hourly METAR reports from KORD captured sustained readings in the low 60s during afternoon hours, aligning with pre-event model consensus from the Global Forecast System and local NWS guidance that projected above-normal warmth—well beyond the 52°F March climatological average—following an early-month warming trend. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from sensor quality checks, though NWS verification processes render such shifts highly improbable. Final climate summaries expected soon will solidify resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on March 29?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 29?
62-63°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$192,355 Vol.
$192,355 Vol.
53°F or below
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
Yes
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72°F or higher
No
62-63°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$192,355 Vol.
$192,355 Vol.
53°F or below
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
Yes
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 62-63°F high temperature at Chicago O'Hare International Airport on March 29, 2026, driven by the National Weather Service's official daily observations confirming this peak amid mild, partly cloudy conditions with southerly winds around 5-10 mph. NOAA hourly METAR reports from KORD captured sustained readings in the low 60s during afternoon hours, aligning with pre-event model consensus from the Global Forecast System and local NWS guidance that projected above-normal warmth—well beyond the 52°F March climatological average—following an early-month warming trend. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from sensor quality checks, though NWS verification processes render such shifts highly improbable. Final climate summaries expected soon will solidify resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Beware of external links.
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