National Weather Service guidance projects a high near 41°F at Chicago O'Hare on April 1 amid mostly cloudy skies, likely showers, and breezy conditions, capping temperatures well below the 53°F April normal following a recent cold front that ended March 30's record 80°F heat. GFS and ECMWF ensemble means cluster in the low-to-mid 40s with modest spread (38-48°F), fueling close market-implied odds for 42-43°F (30.5%) versus 44-45°F (27.5%). Key differentiators include model disagreements on shower persistence, which suppresses daytime heating, versus gusty winds enhancing boundary layer mixing for slight warm-up potential. Evening 12Z model runs and morning upper-air soundings could refine trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on April 1?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?
42-43°F 31%
44-45°F 29%
46-47°F 16%
40-41°F 14.6%
NEW
$45,329 Vol.
NEW
$45,329 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
33°F or below
<1%
34-35°F
<1%
36-37°F
<1%
38-39°F
2%
40-41°F
15%
42-43°F
31%
44-45°F
29%
46-47°F
16%
48-49°F
7%
50-51°F
2%
52°F or higher
7%
42-43°F 31%
44-45°F 29%
46-47°F 16%
40-41°F 14.6%
NEW
$45,329 Vol.
NEW
$45,329 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
33°F or below
$3,008 Vol.
<1%
34-35°F
$5,675 Vol.
<1%
36-37°F
$6,258 Vol.
<1%
38-39°F
$3,156 Vol.
2%
40-41°F
$3,625 Vol.
15%
42-43°F
$3,024 Vol.
31%
44-45°F
$3,173 Vol.
29%
46-47°F
$1,833 Vol.
16%
48-49°F
$3,423 Vol.
7%
50-51°F
$3,334 Vol.
2%
52°F or higher
$9,134 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance projects a high near 41°F at Chicago O'Hare on April 1 amid mostly cloudy skies, likely showers, and breezy conditions, capping temperatures well below the 53°F April normal following a recent cold front that ended March 30's record 80°F heat. GFS and ECMWF ensemble means cluster in the low-to-mid 40s with modest spread (38-48°F), fueling close market-implied odds for 42-43°F (30.5%) versus 44-45°F (27.5%). Key differentiators include model disagreements on shower persistence, which suppresses daytime heating, versus gusty winds enhancing boundary layer mixing for slight warm-up potential. Evening 12Z model runs and morning upper-air soundings could refine trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$45,329End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance projects a high near 41°F at Chicago O'Hare on April 1 amid mostly cloudy skies, likely showers, and breezy conditions, capping temperatures well below the 53°F April normal following a recent cold front that ended March 30's record 80°F heat. GFS and ECMWF ensemble means cluster in the low-to-mid 40s with modest spread (38-48°F), fueling close market-implied odds for 42-43°F (30.5%) versus 44-45°F (27.5%). Key differentiators include model disagreements on shower persistence, which suppresses daytime heating, versus gusty winds enhancing boundary layer mixing for slight warm-up potential. Evening 12Z model runs and morning upper-air soundings could refine trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$45,329End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service guidance projects a high near 41°F at Chicago O'Hare on April 1 amid mostly cloudy skies, likely showers, and breezy conditions, capping temperatures well below the 53°F April normal following a recent cold front that ended March 30's record 80°F heat. GFS and ECMWF ensemble means cluster in the low-to-mid 40s with modest spread (38-48°F), fueling close market-implied odds for 42-43°F (30.5%) versus 44-45°F (27.5%). Key differentiators include model disagreements on shower persistence, which suppresses daytime heating, versus gusty winds enhancing boundary layer mixing for slight warm-up potential. Evening 12Z model runs and morning upper-air soundings could refine trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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