OpenAI's accelerated release cadence has traders anticipating GPT-5.5, codenamed "Spud," following the March 2026 rollout of GPT-5.4 variants—including Standard, Thinking, Pro, Mini, and Nano—which delivered superior reasoning, interruptible mid-thought processing, and deep web research capabilities, outpacing Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 on benchmarks. Internal testing signals pretraining completion, with monthly model drops implying an April launch amid competitive pressure from xAI's Grok and Google's Gemini updates. Key catalysts include OpenAI's late-April Spring Update and Q2 enterprise integrations, though historical delays highlight uncertainty in exact timelines for this large language model advancement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$302,004 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
April 15
23%
April 30
45%
June 30
93%
$302,004 Vol.
April 15
$6,653 Vol.
23%
April 30
$126,517 Vol.
45%
June 30
$168,835 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's accelerated release cadence has traders anticipating GPT-5.5, codenamed "Spud," following the March 2026 rollout of GPT-5.4 variants—including Standard, Thinking, Pro, Mini, and Nano—which delivered superior reasoning, interruptible mid-thought processing, and deep web research capabilities, outpacing Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 on benchmarks. Internal testing signals pretraining completion, with monthly model drops implying an April launch amid competitive pressure from xAI's Grok and Google's Gemini updates. Key catalysts include OpenAI's late-April Spring Update and Q2 enterprise integrations, though historical delays highlight uncertainty in exact timelines for this large language model advancement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 12, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
Volume
$302,004Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's accelerated release cadence has traders anticipating GPT-5.5, codenamed "Spud," following the March 2026 rollout of GPT-5.4 variants—including Standard, Thinking, Pro, Mini, and Nano—which delivered superior reasoning, interruptible mid-thought processing, and deep web research capabilities, outpacing Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 on benchmarks. Internal testing signals pretraining completion, with monthly model drops implying an April launch amid competitive pressure from xAI's Grok and Google's Gemini updates. Key catalysts include OpenAI's late-April Spring Update and Q2 enterprise integrations, though historical delays highlight uncertainty in exact timelines for this large language model advancement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$302,004Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's accelerated release cadence has traders anticipating GPT-5.5, codenamed "Spud," following the March 2026 rollout of GPT-5.4 variants—including Standard, Thinking, Pro, Mini, and Nano—which delivered superior reasoning, interruptible mid-thought processing, and deep web research capabilities, outpacing Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 on benchmarks. Internal testing signals pretraining completion, with monthly model drops implying an April launch amid competitive pressure from xAI's Grok and Google's Gemini updates. Key catalysts include OpenAI's late-April Spring Update and Q2 enterprise integrations, though historical delays highlight uncertainty in exact timelines for this large language model advancement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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