The 95.5% market-implied probability for a hike-pause-hike sequence across the September, October, and December FOMC meetings stems primarily from persistent core PCE inflation above the 2% target, resilient GDP growth near 2.3%, and a stable labor market, which prompted the September 25 basis point increase to the 3.75–4.00% federal funds range. October’s 10–2 pause aligned with data-dependent guidance, while the September dot plot’s 4.1% median year-end projection and recent Reuters polling reinforce expectations of one final tightening in December. This consensus could face pressure from softer November CPI or employment data, a sharper labor market slowdown, or dovish signals at the December 9 meeting that shift the balance of risks.