**Recent Fed communications and the September 16 hike of 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for additional tightening through year-end.** Elevated August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, driven by energy prices, alongside resilient labor-market data with unemployment at 4.1% and solid job gains, have reinforced the view that inflation remains above target and the economy can absorb further policy firming. The updated SEP lifted the median 2026 federal funds rate projection to 4.1%, with most participants seeing at least one more hike. This data-dependent environment creates tight pricing among the leading sequences, as October and December outcomes hinge on incoming inflation prints, October employment figures, and any shifts in Chair Warsh’s guidance before the December dot-plot meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHike–Hike–Hike 35%
Hike–Hike–Pause 30%
Hike–Pause–Hike 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 9%
$118,994 Vol.
$118,994 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
29%
Hike–Pause–Pause
9%
Hike–Hike–Hike
35%
Hike–Hike–Pause
30%
Other
2%
Hike–Hike–Hike 35%
Hike–Hike–Pause 30%
Hike–Pause–Hike 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 9%
$118,994 Vol.
$118,994 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$12,820 Vol.
29%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$21,633 Vol.
9%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$31,408 Vol.
35%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$25,028 Vol.
30%
Other
$5,721 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Recent Fed communications and the September 16 hike of 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for additional tightening through year-end.** Elevated August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, driven by energy prices, alongside resilient labor-market data with unemployment at 4.1% and solid job gains, have reinforced the view that inflation remains above target and the economy can absorb further policy firming. The updated SEP lifted the median 2026 federal funds rate projection to 4.1%, with most participants seeing at least one more hike. This data-dependent environment creates tight pricing among the leading sequences, as October and December outcomes hinge on incoming inflation prints, October employment figures, and any shifts in Chair Warsh’s guidance before the December dot-plot meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$118,994End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Recent Fed communications and the September 16 hike of 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for additional tightening through year-end.** Elevated August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, driven by energy prices, alongside resilient labor-market data with unemployment at 4.1% and solid job gains, have reinforced the view that inflation remains above target and the economy can absorb further policy firming. The updated SEP lifted the median 2026 federal funds rate projection to 4.1%, with most participants seeing at least one more hike. This data-dependent environment creates tight pricing among the leading sequences, as October and December outcomes hinge on incoming inflation prints, October employment figures, and any shifts in Chair Warsh’s guidance before the December dot-plot meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$118,994End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent Fed communications and the September 16 hike of 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for additional tightening through year-end.** Elevated August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, driven by energy prices, alongside resilient labor-market data with unemployment at 4.1% and solid job gains, have reinforced the view that inflation remains above target and the economy can absorb further policy firming. The updated SEP lifted the median 2026 federal funds rate projection to 4.1%, with most participants seeing at least one more hike. This data-dependent environment creates tight pricing among the leading sequences, as October and December outcomes hinge on incoming inflation prints, October employment figures, and any shifts in Chair Warsh’s guidance before the December dot-plot meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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