Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026 Top 10 placements heavily favors perennial contenders like Sweden (55% implied probability) and Italy (48%), propelled by their robust national selection processes—Melodifestivalen and Sanremo—which consistently yield jury-televote favorites. The May 2025 contest in Basel remains the pivotal near-term catalyst, as its winner secures hosting duties and a direct Grand Final spot, often boosting home nations into the Top 10 per historical patterns (hosts average 7th place since 2000). Geopolitical tensions and Big Five auto-qualifiers (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain) add volatility, with early national final announcements expected by late 2025 fueling position shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedEurovision 2026: Top 10
Eurovision 2026: Top 10
$55,722 Vol.

Finland
88%

Greece
83%

Denmark
82%

Israel
82%

France
78%

Ukraine
75%

Sweden
74%

Australia
64%

Italy
65%

Czechia
43%

Bulgaria
39%

Cyprus
42%

Moldova
40%

Latvia
34%

Croatia
33%

Malta
30%

Luxembourg
16%

Romania
23%

Norway
21%

United Kingdom
20%

Switzerland
19%

Georgia
18%

Montenegro
18%

Belgium
18%

Albania
17%

Lithuania
17%

Serbia
16%

Armenia
15%

Portugal
14%

Germany
13%

Poland
12%

San Marino
12%

Estonia
9%

Azerbaijan
8%

Austria
8%
$55,722 Vol.

Finland
88%

Greece
83%

Denmark
82%

Israel
82%

France
78%

Ukraine
75%

Sweden
74%

Australia
64%

Italy
65%

Czechia
43%

Bulgaria
39%

Cyprus
42%

Moldova
40%

Latvia
34%

Croatia
33%

Malta
30%

Luxembourg
16%

Romania
23%

Norway
21%

United Kingdom
20%

Switzerland
19%

Georgia
18%

Montenegro
18%

Belgium
18%

Albania
17%

Lithuania
17%

Serbia
16%

Armenia
15%

Portugal
14%

Germany
13%

Poland
12%

San Marino
12%

Estonia
9%

Azerbaijan
8%

Austria
8%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 10 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026 Top 10 placements heavily favors perennial contenders like Sweden (55% implied probability) and Italy (48%), propelled by their robust national selection processes—Melodifestivalen and Sanremo—which consistently yield jury-televote favorites. The May 2025 contest in Basel remains the pivotal near-term catalyst, as its winner secures hosting duties and a direct Grand Final spot, often boosting home nations into the Top 10 per historical patterns (hosts average 7th place since 2000). Geopolitical tensions and Big Five auto-qualifiers (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain) add volatility, with early national final announcements expected by late 2025 fueling position shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions