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Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final

Market icon

Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final

$138,314 Vol.

May 14, 2026
Polymarket

$138,314 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

Ukraine

$1,498 Vol.

95%

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Australia

$11,503 Vol.

95%

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Denmark

$609 Vol.

93%

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Bulgaria

$5,161 Vol.

83%

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Romania

$6,858 Vol.

81%

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Cyprus

$16,513 Vol.

78%

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Malta

$11,983 Vol.

77%

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Norway

$4,653 Vol.

72%

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Albania

$15,086 Vol.

68%

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Czechia

$30,674 Vol.

61%

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Latvia

$873 Vol.

61%

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Switzerland

$6,374 Vol.

39%

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Armenia

$11,646 Vol.

38%

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Luxembourg

$10,994 Vol.

37%

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Azerbaijan

$3,887 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.The running order draw for Eurovision 2026's Second Semi-Final, unveiled April 2 at Vienna City Hall, has sharpened trader focus on positioning advantages, with late slots boosting frontrunners like Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse") and Ukraine's LELÉKA ("Ridnym") for the May 14 showdown at Wiener Stadthalle. Among the 15 contenders—including Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund ("Før Vi Går Hjem"), Cyprus' Antigoni ("JALLA"), and Romania's Alexandra Căpitănescu ("Choke Me")—market-implied odds reflect strong consensus around diaspora televote powerhouses and pop anthems, per bookie trackers and fan polls. Only the top 10 qualify for the May 16 final; first rehearsals kick off May 1, where staging reveals and live run-throughs could spark momentum shifts in this high-volatility contest.

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$138,314
End Date
May 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.The running order draw for Eurovision 2026's Second Semi-Final, unveiled April 2 at Vienna City Hall, has sharpened trader focus on positioning advantages, with late slots boosting frontrunners like Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse") and Ukraine's LELÉKA ("Ridnym") for the May 14 showdown at Wiener Stadthalle. Among the 15 contenders—including Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund ("Før Vi Går Hjem"), Cyprus' Antigoni ("JALLA"), and Romania's Alexandra Căpitănescu ("Choke Me")—market-implied odds reflect strong consensus around diaspora televote powerhouses and pop anthems, per bookie trackers and fan polls. Only the top 10 qualify for the May 16 final; first rehearsals kick off May 1, where staging reveals and live run-throughs could spark momentum shifts in this high-volatility contest.

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$138,314
End Date
May 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Related

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Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

27%
Market icon

Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

72%
Market icon

Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

91%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ukraine" at 95%, followed by "Australia" at 95%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" has generated $138.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" is "Ukraine" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Australia" at 95%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.