Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Sweden for a Eurovision 2026 top 10 finish at around 70% implied probability, driven by its Melodifestivalen dominance and Loreen's lingering 2023 momentum, with Italy and Finland close behind at 60-65%. Recent national selection buzz from 2025 previews, like Norway's strong entries, has lifted Nordic odds amid televote-friendly pop anthems. Big 5 auto-qualifiers (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) anchor stability per historical jury-televote splits, but Ukraine's diaspora power persists despite geopolitics. Watch Eurovision 2025 final on May 17 in Basel—its winner hosts 2026, injecting home-crowd volatility into early trader positions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedEurovision 2026: Top 10
Eurovision 2026: Top 10
$48,177 Vol.

Finland
91%

Greece
83%

Denmark
82%

Israel
81%

Sweden
73%

France
78%

Ukraine
75%

Australia
64%

Italy
65%

Czechia
42%

Bulgaria
39%

Cyprus
42%

Moldova
40%

Croatia
35%

Latvia
34%

Malta
30%

Luxembourg
16%

Romania
23%

Norway
22%

United Kingdom
27%

Lithuania
20%

Switzerland
19%

Albania
18%

Georgia
18%

Montenegro
18%

Belgium
18%

Serbia
17%

Armenia
15%

Portugal
14%

Germany
13%

Poland
12%

San Marino
11%

Estonia
9%

Austria
9%

Azerbaijan
8%
$48,177 Vol.

Finland
91%

Greece
83%

Denmark
82%

Israel
81%

Sweden
73%

France
78%

Ukraine
75%

Australia
64%

Italy
65%

Czechia
42%

Bulgaria
39%

Cyprus
42%

Moldova
40%

Croatia
35%

Latvia
34%

Malta
30%

Luxembourg
16%

Romania
23%

Norway
22%

United Kingdom
27%

Lithuania
20%

Switzerland
19%

Albania
18%

Georgia
18%

Montenegro
18%

Belgium
18%

Serbia
17%

Armenia
15%

Portugal
14%

Germany
13%

Poland
12%

San Marino
11%

Estonia
9%

Austria
9%

Azerbaijan
8%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 10 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Sweden for a Eurovision 2026 top 10 finish at around 70% implied probability, driven by its Melodifestivalen dominance and Loreen's lingering 2023 momentum, with Italy and Finland close behind at 60-65%. Recent national selection buzz from 2025 previews, like Norway's strong entries, has lifted Nordic odds amid televote-friendly pop anthems. Big 5 auto-qualifiers (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) anchor stability per historical jury-televote splits, but Ukraine's diaspora power persists despite geopolitics. Watch Eurovision 2025 final on May 17 in Basel—its winner hosts 2026, injecting home-crowd volatility into early trader positions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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