Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 90-114 tweets by Elon Musk from March 30 to April 1 at a 100% implied probability, driven by real-time tracking of his @elonmusk X activity showing a cumulative total firmly in that bin as the period wraps today. This moderate pace—roughly 30-38 posts daily—falls below his recent averages of 68-101 tweets per day tracked in 2024-2025 analyses, reflecting subdued engagement without major controversies, tech announcements, or viral spats to fuel a barrage. With resolution imminent, an upset to 140-164 would demand an unprecedented 50+ post marathon in final hours, defying even Musk's record single-day highs around 150.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated90-114 91.4%
<40 <1%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
$3,514,406 Vol.
$3,514,406 Vol.
<40
No
40-64
No
65-89
No
90-114
Yes
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
90-114 91.4%
<40 <1%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
$3,514,406 Vol.
$3,514,406 Vol.
<40
No
40-64
No
65-89
No
90-114
Yes
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 28, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 90-114 tweets by Elon Musk from March 30 to April 1 at a 100% implied probability, driven by real-time tracking of his @elonmusk X activity showing a cumulative total firmly in that bin as the period wraps today. This moderate pace—roughly 30-38 posts daily—falls below his recent averages of 68-101 tweets per day tracked in 2024-2025 analyses, reflecting subdued engagement without major controversies, tech announcements, or viral spats to fuel a barrage. With resolution imminent, an upset to 140-164 would demand an unprecedented 50+ post marathon in final hours, defying even Musk's record single-day highs around 150.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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