Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet count market for March 27–April 3, 2026, clusters tightly around 240–259 posts at 37% implied probability and 260–279 at 28%, reflecting a steady pace of 30–39 daily posts through April 1, with 151–174 total logged at roughly 71% elapsed. Recent upticks on March 30–31, driven by viral commentary on border policy, media critiques, and Tesla FSD insurance perks, have built momentum without explosive spikes, mirroring his 34–35 tweet/day rolling average from prior weeks. Competitive dynamics hinge on the final three days: sustained engagement amid political buzz or SpaceX/Tesla updates could push into 260+, while lulls from travel or focus shifts favor the lower bin, underscoring prediction markets' sensitivity to real-time social media rhythms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated240-259 36.1%
260-279 31%
280-299 16%
220-239 9.3%
$15,356,675 Vol.
$15,356,675 Vol.
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
1%
220-239
9%
240-259
36%
260-279
31%
280-299
16%
300-319
5%
320-339
3%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
240-259 36.1%
260-279 31%
280-299 16%
220-239 9.3%
$15,356,675 Vol.
$15,356,675 Vol.
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
1%
220-239
9%
240-259
36%
260-279
31%
280-299
16%
300-319
5%
320-339
3%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet count market for March 27–April 3, 2026, clusters tightly around 240–259 posts at 37% implied probability and 260–279 at 28%, reflecting a steady pace of 30–39 daily posts through April 1, with 151–174 total logged at roughly 71% elapsed. Recent upticks on March 30–31, driven by viral commentary on border policy, media critiques, and Tesla FSD insurance perks, have built momentum without explosive spikes, mirroring his 34–35 tweet/day rolling average from prior weeks. Competitive dynamics hinge on the final three days: sustained engagement amid political buzz or SpaceX/Tesla updates could push into 260+, while lulls from travel or focus shifts favor the lower bin, underscoring prediction markets' sensitivity to real-time social media rhythms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Beware of external links.
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