Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs 65-89 tweets by Elon Musk from March 26-28, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by verified real-time X post counts showing a steady cadence of roughly 20-30 posts daily amid his signature mix of political commentary on voter ID mandates and judicial bias, Tesla Cybertruck boasts, and Grok AI updates. This aligns with historical patterns during non-crisis periods, where Musk maintains high engagement without explosive surges, as seen in recent precursor markets resolving to similar mid-range volumes. With hours left in the March 28 window, an upset to 90+ would require an unprecedented tweet storm—possible if breaking news like DOGE policy announcements erupts, but traders see negligible risk given his current restrained pace.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated65-89 100.0%
90-114 <1%
115-139 <1%
140-164 <1%
$3,324,191 Vol.
$3,324,191 Vol.
65-89
100%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 100.0%
90-114 <1%
115-139 <1%
140-164 <1%
$3,324,191 Vol.
$3,324,191 Vol.
65-89
100%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs 65-89 tweets by Elon Musk from March 26-28, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by verified real-time X post counts showing a steady cadence of roughly 20-30 posts daily amid his signature mix of political commentary on voter ID mandates and judicial bias, Tesla Cybertruck boasts, and Grok AI updates. This aligns with historical patterns during non-crisis periods, where Musk maintains high engagement without explosive surges, as seen in recent precursor markets resolving to similar mid-range volumes. With hours left in the March 28 window, an upset to 90+ would require an unprecedented tweet storm—possible if breaking news like DOGE policy announcements erupts, but traders see negligible risk given his current restrained pace.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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