Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 300-359 tweets during March 20-27, 2026, with 320-339 tweets leading at 12.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 300-319 (11.5%) and 340-359 (11.0%), signaling expectations of his typical hyperactive X cadence. This reflects recent patterns where Musk averages 40-60 posts daily amid Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary, totaling 280-420 weekly amid 2024's election frenzy. Sentiment hinges on historical volatility—spikes during controversies versus quieter lulls—without confirmed 2026 events, leaving lower bins like 240-259 (7.5%) as hedges against potential platform changes or reduced engagement post-DOGE advisory role. Key differentiator: unforeseen viral moments could push toward 400+, per past precedent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated320-339 13%
300-319 12%
340-359 12%
280-299 11%
$1,209,961 Vol.
$1,209,961 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
1%
200-219
3%
220-239
6%
240-259
8%
260-279
8%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
13%
340-359
12%
360-379
10%
380-399
7%
400-419
5%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
320-339 13%
300-319 12%
340-359 12%
280-299 11%
$1,209,961 Vol.
$1,209,961 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
1%
200-219
3%
220-239
6%
240-259
8%
260-279
8%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
13%
340-359
12%
360-379
10%
380-399
7%
400-419
5%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 300-359 tweets during March 20-27, 2026, with 320-339 tweets leading at 12.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 300-319 (11.5%) and 340-359 (11.0%), signaling expectations of his typical hyperactive X cadence. This reflects recent patterns where Musk averages 40-60 posts daily amid Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary, totaling 280-420 weekly amid 2024's election frenzy. Sentiment hinges on historical volatility—spikes during controversies versus quieter lulls—without confirmed 2026 events, leaving lower bins like 240-259 (7.5%) as hedges against potential platform changes or reduced engagement post-DOGE advisory role. Key differentiator: unforeseen viral moments could push toward 400+, per past precedent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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