Trader consensus on the Cochabamba governor election reflects a fragmented race, with Alejandro Mostajo Rueda of MAS holding a slim edge at 31.3% implied probability, closely trailed by Mario Severich of Comunidad Ciudadana at 30.2% and Sergio Oliver Rodríguez at 26.3%, driven by recent polls showing voters split between ruling party continuity and opposition challengers amid national MAS infighting. Regional dynamics hinge on urban-rural divides, agricultural policy disputes, and lingering effects from prior governor disqualifications, keeping odds tight despite Mostajo's organizational edge. Separation could emerge from final pre-election surveys, high-profile endorsements by President Arce or Evo Morales allies, or turnout shifts in key Cochabamba municipalities ahead of voting day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCochabamba Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
Cochabamba Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez 21.1%
Wilfredo Rolando Morales 11.0%
Mario Enrique Severich 10.8%
Esther Soria Gonzales 5.7%
$15,217 Vol.
$15,217 Vol.
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez
26%
Wilfredo Rolando Morales
16%
Mario Enrique Severich
30%
Esther Soria Gonzales
6%
Ruth Alina Peralta
5%
Remigio Ancalle
4%
Jhon Ariel Rioja
3%
Juan Roberth Flores
6%
Alejandro Mostajo Rueda
31%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez 21.1%
Wilfredo Rolando Morales 11.0%
Mario Enrique Severich 10.8%
Esther Soria Gonzales 5.7%
$15,217 Vol.
$15,217 Vol.
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez
26%
Wilfredo Rolando Morales
16%
Mario Enrique Severich
30%
Esther Soria Gonzales
6%
Ruth Alina Peralta
5%
Remigio Ancalle
4%
Jhon Ariel Rioja
3%
Juan Roberth Flores
6%
Alejandro Mostajo Rueda
31%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Market Opened: Jan 20, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the Cochabamba governor election reflects a fragmented race, with Alejandro Mostajo Rueda of MAS holding a slim edge at 31.3% implied probability, closely trailed by Mario Severich of Comunidad Ciudadana at 30.2% and Sergio Oliver Rodríguez at 26.3%, driven by recent polls showing voters split between ruling party continuity and opposition challengers amid national MAS infighting. Regional dynamics hinge on urban-rural divides, agricultural policy disputes, and lingering effects from prior governor disqualifications, keeping odds tight despite Mostajo's organizational edge. Separation could emerge from final pre-election surveys, high-profile endorsements by President Arce or Evo Morales allies, or turnout shifts in key Cochabamba municipalities ahead of voting day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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