Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56% implied probability on no Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting ample private capital from its February 2026 Series G raise of $30 billion at a $380 billion post-money valuation—the second-largest funding round ever—which reduces urgency to go public amid ongoing cash burn typical of frontier AI labs developing large language models like Claude. Recent late-March reports of early talks with banks for a potential Q4 2026 listing targeting over $60 billion in proceeds have lifted the 600B+ outcome to 35%, signaling optimism for a valuation premium driven by $19 billion annualized revenue run rate and rivalry with OpenAI, though lower market-cap buckets languish below 4% due to disclosure risks from audited financials and regulatory scrutiny labeling Anthropic a supply-chain risk. Watch for S-1 filings or market volatility as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo IPO by December 31, 2027 48%
600B+ 44%
400–600B 3.5%
300–400B <1%
$98,840 Vol.
$98,840 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
<1%
100–200B
<1%
200–300B
<1%
300–400B
1%
400–600B
3%
600B+
44%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
55%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 48%
600B+ 44%
400–600B 3.5%
300–400B <1%
$98,840 Vol.
$98,840 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
$48,538 Vol.
<1%
100–200B
$3,901 Vol.
<1%
200–300B
$3,904 Vol.
<1%
300–400B
$26,136 Vol.
1%
400–600B
$4,166 Vol.
3%
600B+
$7,403 Vol.
44%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$4,792 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56% implied probability on no Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting ample private capital from its February 2026 Series G raise of $30 billion at a $380 billion post-money valuation—the second-largest funding round ever—which reduces urgency to go public amid ongoing cash burn typical of frontier AI labs developing large language models like Claude. Recent late-March reports of early talks with banks for a potential Q4 2026 listing targeting over $60 billion in proceeds have lifted the 600B+ outcome to 35%, signaling optimism for a valuation premium driven by $19 billion annualized revenue run rate and rivalry with OpenAI, though lower market-cap buckets languish below 4% due to disclosure risks from audited financials and regulatory scrutiny labeling Anthropic a supply-chain risk. Watch for S-1 filings or market volatility as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Volume
$98,840End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56% implied probability on no Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting ample private capital from its February 2026 Series G raise of $30 billion at a $380 billion post-money valuation—the second-largest funding round ever—which reduces urgency to go public amid ongoing cash burn typical of frontier AI labs developing large language models like Claude. Recent late-March reports of early talks with banks for a potential Q4 2026 listing targeting over $60 billion in proceeds have lifted the 600B+ outcome to 35%, signaling optimism for a valuation premium driven by $19 billion annualized revenue run rate and rivalry with OpenAI, though lower market-cap buckets languish below 4% due to disclosure risks from audited financials and regulatory scrutiny labeling Anthropic a supply-chain risk. Watch for S-1 filings or market volatility as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$98,840End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56% implied probability on no Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting ample private capital from its February 2026 Series G raise of $30 billion at a $380 billion post-money valuation—the second-largest funding round ever—which reduces urgency to go public amid ongoing cash burn typical of frontier AI labs developing large language models like Claude. Recent late-March reports of early talks with banks for a potential Q4 2026 listing targeting over $60 billion in proceeds have lifted the 600B+ outcome to 35%, signaling optimism for a valuation premium driven by $19 billion annualized revenue run rate and rivalry with OpenAI, though lower market-cap buckets languish below 4% due to disclosure risks from audited financials and regulatory scrutiny labeling Anthropic a supply-chain risk. Watch for S-1 filings or market volatility as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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