Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward no Anthropic initial public offering by December 31, 2027, at 55% implied probability, narrowly ahead of a blockbuster 600B+ closing market cap at 39%, underscoring uncertainty in the AI startup's path despite accelerating momentum. Last week's reports from The Information and Bloomberg revealed executives discussing a Q4 2026 IPO that could raise over $60 billion, propelled by annualized revenue doubling to $19 billion and a February Series G funding round valuing Claude-maker Anthropic at $380 billion post-money. Massive private capital from Amazon and Google, coupled with regulatory scrutiny on large language models and historical delays for peers like OpenAI, sustain skepticism on timelines, while explosive enterprise AI adoption keeps high-valuation bets alive ahead of potential S-1 filings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo IPO by December 31, 2027 55%
600B+ 39%
400–600B 1.8%
300–400B <1%
$99,424 Vol.
$99,424 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
<1%
100–200B
<1%
200–300B
<1%
300–400B
1%
400–600B
2%
600B+
39%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
55%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 55%
600B+ 39%
400–600B 1.8%
300–400B <1%
$99,424 Vol.
$99,424 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
$48,538 Vol.
<1%
100–200B
$3,901 Vol.
<1%
200–300B
$3,909 Vol.
<1%
300–400B
$26,156 Vol.
1%
400–600B
$4,166 Vol.
2%
600B+
$7,685 Vol.
39%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$5,069 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward no Anthropic initial public offering by December 31, 2027, at 55% implied probability, narrowly ahead of a blockbuster 600B+ closing market cap at 39%, underscoring uncertainty in the AI startup's path despite accelerating momentum. Last week's reports from The Information and Bloomberg revealed executives discussing a Q4 2026 IPO that could raise over $60 billion, propelled by annualized revenue doubling to $19 billion and a February Series G funding round valuing Claude-maker Anthropic at $380 billion post-money. Massive private capital from Amazon and Google, coupled with regulatory scrutiny on large language models and historical delays for peers like OpenAI, sustain skepticism on timelines, while explosive enterprise AI adoption keeps high-valuation bets alive ahead of potential S-1 filings.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Volume
$99,424End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward no Anthropic initial public offering by December 31, 2027, at 55% implied probability, narrowly ahead of a blockbuster 600B+ closing market cap at 39%, underscoring uncertainty in the AI startup's path despite accelerating momentum. Last week's reports from The Information and Bloomberg revealed executives discussing a Q4 2026 IPO that could raise over $60 billion, propelled by annualized revenue doubling to $19 billion and a February Series G funding round valuing Claude-maker Anthropic at $380 billion post-money. Massive private capital from Amazon and Google, coupled with regulatory scrutiny on large language models and historical delays for peers like OpenAI, sustain skepticism on timelines, while explosive enterprise AI adoption keeps high-valuation bets alive ahead of potential S-1 filings.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$99,424End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward no Anthropic initial public offering by December 31, 2027, at 55% implied probability, narrowly ahead of a blockbuster 600B+ closing market cap at 39%, underscoring uncertainty in the AI startup's path despite accelerating momentum. Last week's reports from The Information and Bloomberg revealed executives discussing a Q4 2026 IPO that could raise over $60 billion, propelled by annualized revenue doubling to $19 billion and a February Series G funding round valuing Claude-maker Anthropic at $380 billion post-money. Massive private capital from Amazon and Google, coupled with regulatory scrutiny on large language models and historical delays for peers like OpenAI, sustain skepticism on timelines, while explosive enterprise AI adoption keeps high-valuation bets alive ahead of potential S-1 filings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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