Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $600 billion (67.5% implied probability), driven by surging secondary market bids valuing the company around $600 billion—more than 50% above its February $380 billion Series G funding round—and rapid revenue growth to a $19 billion annualized run rate, fueled by Claude's enterprise coding tools and developer adoption. Recent reports of Q4 2026 IPO discussions, with bankers eyeing a $60 billion-plus raise, underscore this positioning amid Anthropic's edge over OpenAI in profitability trajectory and partnerships with Amazon and Google. The 24.5% odds on no IPO by December 2027 reflect macro risks like geopolitical tensions and market volatility, with an S-1 filing as the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated600B+ 68%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 23%
400–600B 2.2%
300–400B 1.1%
$110,675 Vol.
$110,675 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
<1%
100–200B
1%
200–300B
1%
300–400B
1%
400–600B
2%
600B+
68%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
23%
600B+ 68%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 23%
400–600B 2.2%
300–400B 1.1%
$110,675 Vol.
$110,675 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
$48,979 Vol.
<1%
100–200B
$6,011 Vol.
1%
200–300B
$4,914 Vol.
1%
300–400B
$28,164 Vol.
1%
400–600B
$5,081 Vol.
2%
600B+
$9,124 Vol.
68%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$8,402 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $600 billion (67.5% implied probability), driven by surging secondary market bids valuing the company around $600 billion—more than 50% above its February $380 billion Series G funding round—and rapid revenue growth to a $19 billion annualized run rate, fueled by Claude's enterprise coding tools and developer adoption. Recent reports of Q4 2026 IPO discussions, with bankers eyeing a $60 billion-plus raise, underscore this positioning amid Anthropic's edge over OpenAI in profitability trajectory and partnerships with Amazon and Google. The 24.5% odds on no IPO by December 2027 reflect macro risks like geopolitical tensions and market volatility, with an S-1 filing as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Volume
$110,675End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $600 billion (67.5% implied probability), driven by surging secondary market bids valuing the company around $600 billion—more than 50% above its February $380 billion Series G funding round—and rapid revenue growth to a $19 billion annualized run rate, fueled by Claude's enterprise coding tools and developer adoption. Recent reports of Q4 2026 IPO discussions, with bankers eyeing a $60 billion-plus raise, underscore this positioning amid Anthropic's edge over OpenAI in profitability trajectory and partnerships with Amazon and Google. The 24.5% odds on no IPO by December 2027 reflect macro risks like geopolitical tensions and market volatility, with an S-1 filing as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$110,675End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $600 billion (67.5% implied probability), driven by surging secondary market bids valuing the company around $600 billion—more than 50% above its February $380 billion Series G funding round—and rapid revenue growth to a $19 billion annualized run rate, fueled by Claude's enterprise coding tools and developer adoption. Recent reports of Q4 2026 IPO discussions, with bankers eyeing a $60 billion-plus raise, underscore this positioning amid Anthropic's edge over OpenAI in profitability trajectory and partnerships with Amazon and Google. The 24.5% odds on no IPO by December 2027 reflect macro risks like geopolitical tensions and market volatility, with an S-1 filing as the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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