Name: 30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?
Start: 2026-01-07T22:13:03.422601Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between market creation and January 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable or haven't released the specified data up until the end of the 14th day following resolution time, this market will resolve based on the data published up until that point.

30-year mortgage rate

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". 

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.0% before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. 

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765).  The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/6)


Will the median home value in the US be greater than $418,000 by February 1?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2026?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate hike in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USD-denominated stablecoin supply falls below 99% of total stablecoin supply at any point in 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is Artemis (https://app.artemisanalytics.com/stablecoins), using the “Stablecoin Supply by Currency” chart. The USD percentage shown when hovering over a monthly data point will be used.

A monthly data point will be considered finalized once the following month’s data point is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?

This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:

- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.

If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open  to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if the Milady floor price reaches 2ETH or higher at any point between December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be NftPriceFloor, specifically the "Milady price chart" available at https://nftpricefloor.com/milady, with "1M" selected on the top bar. The price will be determined based on the value shown when hovering over the chart.

Only data from NFTPriceFloor will be used to resolve this market. Prices from other data providers or NFT marketplaces will not be considered.

Will Milady floor price reach 2 ETH before 2027?

The CDC reported a general fertility rate of 53.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q2 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q3 2025 exceeds 53.7, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q3 2025 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q3 2025, regardless of any subsequent revisions.

The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.

US fertility rate up in Q3 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

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30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

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30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

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30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

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