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Climate & Science·Science

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

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Climate & Science·Science

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Apr 10

May 10

Apr 10

May 10

4th or lower 98.3%

1st hottest <1%

3rd hottest <1%

2nd hottest <1%

Polymarket

$276,630 Vol.

4th or lower 98.3%

1st hottest <1%

3rd hottest <1%

2nd hottest <1%

Polymarket

$276,630 Vol.

1st hottest

$97,214 Vol.

<1%

2nd hottest

$54,289 Vol.

<1%

3rd hottest

$95,197 Vol.

<1%

4th or lower

$29,930 Vol.

98%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows global surface air temperatures on March 1-3, 2026, ranking outside the top three all-time daily records, supporting the market's 98.3% implied probability for "4th or lower." This positioning stems from lingering La Niña conditions—confirmed by NOAA through early 2026—which suppressed anomalies below the peaks of the 2023-2024 El Niño period, when July days exceeded 17°C absolute temperatures. January and February 2026 ranked only fifth-warmest on record, with March's overall anomaly near +0.4°C above the 1991-2020 baseline per JRA-55 reanalysis, starting notably cool. A realistic challenge would require substantial upward revision in final ERA5 data, unlikely given reanalysis stability, ahead of the official March bulletin.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.

Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$276,630
End Date
Apr 10, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows global surface air temperatures on March 1-3, 2026, ranking outside the top three all-time daily records, supporting the market's 98.3% implied probability for "4th or lower." This positioning stems from lingering La Niña conditions—confirmed by NOAA through early 2026—which suppressed anomalies below the peaks of the 2023-2024 El Niño period, when July days exceeded 17°C absolute temperatures. January and February 2026 ranked only fifth-warmest on record, with March's overall anomaly near +0.4°C above the 1991-2020 baseline per JRA-55 reanalysis, starting notably cool. A realistic challenge would require substantial upward revision in final ERA5 data, unlikely given reanalysis stability, ahead of the official March bulletin.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.

Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$276,630
End Date
Apr 10, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Related

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Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

45%
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Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

74%
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Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?

28%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4th or lower" at 98%, followed by "1st hottest" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" has generated $276.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" is "4th or lower" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1st hottest" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.