Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, driven by the complete absence of official statements, policy proposals, or military signals from the U.S. government suggesting such action. Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory and NATO ally, maintains cooperative defense ties with the U.S. via the Thule Air Base, with recent bilateral agreements emphasizing partnership amid Arctic tensions with Russia and China. No escalatory diplomatic disputes, sanctions, or territorial claims have surfaced in the past 30 days; historical interest, like the 2019 purchase proposal, remains dormant without revival. While late-breaking geopolitical shifts could theoretically alter dynamics, current foreign policy prioritizes multilateral alliances over unilateral military intervention.