OpenAI's latest large language models, including GPT-5 and o3 variants, command a 99.8% implied probability on Polymarket due to their unchallenged lead in the Mathematics Average category on the LiveBench.ai leaderboard—the market's official resolution source—as of March 31, 2026. Recent evaluations, such as MATH-500 where GPT-5 scores 99.4% ahead of xAI's Grok 3 Mini at 99.2% and others trailing further, underscore this dominance in advanced math reasoning benchmarks like AIME and competition-level problems. Trader consensus reflects real-capital conviction in OpenAI's superior chain-of-thought capabilities and iterative releases outpacing rivals. Realistic challenges include a pre-12:00 PM ET leaderboard refresh elevating Anthropic's Claude or Google's Gemini via new evals, though no such shifts have materialized in the past week.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoOpenAI 99.8%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$496,859 Vol.
$496,859 Vol.
31 mar 2026
OpenAI
100%
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
xAI
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
OpenAI 99.8%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$496,859 Vol.
$496,859 Vol.
31 mar 2026
OpenAI
$68,092 Vol.
100%
$133,679 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$24,738 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$76,995 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$63,946 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$31,587 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$66,783 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$31,038 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI's latest large language models, including GPT-5 and o3 variants, command a 99.8% implied probability on Polymarket due to their unchallenged lead in the Mathematics Average category on the LiveBench.ai leaderboard—the market's official resolution source—as of March 31, 2026. Recent evaluations, such as MATH-500 where GPT-5 scores 99.4% ahead of xAI's Grok 3 Mini at 99.2% and others trailing further, underscore this dominance in advanced math reasoning benchmarks like AIME and competition-level problems. Trader consensus reflects real-capital conviction in OpenAI's superior chain-of-thought capabilities and iterative releases outpacing rivals. Realistic challenges include a pre-12:00 PM ET leaderboard refresh elevating Anthropic's Claude or Google's Gemini via new evals, though no such shifts have materialized in the past week.
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ET
Volumen
$496,859Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI's latest large language models, including GPT-5 and o3 variants, command a 99.8% implied probability on Polymarket due to their unchallenged lead in the Mathematics Average category on the LiveBench.ai leaderboard—the market's official resolution source—as of March 31, 2026. Recent evaluations, such as MATH-500 where GPT-5 scores 99.4% ahead of xAI's Grok 3 Mini at 99.2% and others trailing further, underscore this dominance in advanced math reasoning benchmarks like AIME and competition-level problems. Trader consensus reflects real-capital conviction in OpenAI's superior chain-of-thought capabilities and iterative releases outpacing rivals. Realistic challenges include a pre-12:00 PM ET leaderboard refresh elevating Anthropic's Claude or Google's Gemini via new evals, though no such shifts have materialized in the past week.
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$496,859Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's latest large language models, including GPT-5 and o3 variants, command a 99.8% implied probability on Polymarket due to their unchallenged lead in the Mathematics Average category on the LiveBench.ai leaderboard—the market's official resolution source—as of March 31, 2026. Recent evaluations, such as MATH-500 where GPT-5 scores 99.4% ahead of xAI's Grok 3 Mini at 99.2% and others trailing further, underscore this dominance in advanced math reasoning benchmarks like AIME and competition-level problems. Trader consensus reflects real-capital conviction in OpenAI's superior chain-of-thought capabilities and iterative releases outpacing rivals. Realistic challenges include a pre-12:00 PM ET leaderboard refresh elevating Anthropic's Claude or Google's Gemini via new evals, though no such shifts have materialized in the past week.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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