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Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15

Market icon
Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15

Ritchie Torres 85%

Michael Blake 14%

Dalourny Nemorin 1.9%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket

$22,046 Vol.

Ritchie Torres 85%

Michael Blake 14%

Dalourny Nemorin 1.9%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket

$22,046 Vol.

Ritchie Torres

$2,919 Vol.

85%

Michael Blake

$1,883 Vol.

14%

Dalourny Nemorin

$10,877 Vol.

2%

Amanda Septimo

$6,367 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres commands 84.5% trader consensus in the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong incumbency advantage, substantial fundraising lead, and recent high-profile endorsements from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on March 23 and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC in February, bolstering his appeal in the Bronx's poorest congressional district. Challenger Michael Blake garners 13.5% amid progressive pushback against Torres' pro-Israel positions and AIPAC donations, but late-March controversies over Blake's fundraising posts implying unconfirmed endorsements like Zohran Mamdani's and accusations of flip-flopping on Israel have tempered his momentum. Public defender Dalourny Nemorin trails at 2.3% with DSA backing criticizing Torres' donor focus, while Amanda Septimo lags. Absent recent polls, traders favor Torres' path-to-victory in the closed primary, though a late debate or turnout surge could shift dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$22,046
Fecha de finalización
23 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres commands 84.5% trader consensus in the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong incumbency advantage, substantial fundraising lead, and recent high-profile endorsements from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on March 23 and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC in February, bolstering his appeal in the Bronx's poorest congressional district. Challenger Michael Blake garners 13.5% amid progressive pushback against Torres' pro-Israel positions and AIPAC donations, but late-March controversies over Blake's fundraising posts implying unconfirmed endorsements like Zohran Mamdani's and accusations of flip-flopping on Israel have tempered his momentum. Public defender Dalourny Nemorin trails at 2.3% with DSA backing criticizing Torres' donor focus, while Amanda Septimo lags. Absent recent polls, traders favor Torres' path-to-victory in the closed primary, though a late debate or turnout surge could shift dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$22,046
Fecha de finalización
23 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Ritchie Torres" con 85%, seguido de "Michael Blake" con 14%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 85¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 85% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15" ha generado $22K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 25, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15" es "Ritchie Torres" con 85%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 85% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Michael Blake" con 14%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-15" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.